EUR/USD – 4H – BUY

BUY Counter-trend 4× UPDATED

2026-11-09 02:00 UTC 18 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.51 %

Entry

1.11595

Target

1.12731 +1.02 %

closes in profit

Stop

1.11044 −0.49 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 4 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average +0.01 % per trade 624 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 624 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.45 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.31 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.32 % 17 % at stop avg −0.48 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ALMA Break Up, T3 Break Up, HMA Break Up +8 more

Trend at entry: in 2 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 37,587 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.0 % ↑ +1.7 vs previous candle

VERY STRONG Swing

▲ Bullish 97 % (27.82) ▼ Bearish 3 % (0.75)

model score 97.4 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 5 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 6 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.4 % vs 18.9 % on average · stopped out 15.0 % vs 12.6 % (forex, 668 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for EUR/USD

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDCPI●●●Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298in 12h
13:30TodayUSDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Previous 0.4%in 12h
13:30TodayUSDCore CPI●●●Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896in 12h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 50% — below this the other side leads

Holding up. Conviction has not dropped below the halfway mark since entry.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (9 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC, updated 4× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	ALMA Break Up	indicator	2.63
▲	T3 Break Up	indicator	2.34
▲	HMA Break Up	indicator	2.02
▲	CHOP Trending	indicator	1.60
▼	KST Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.44
▲	WILLR OS Exit	indicator	1.31
▲	Three Outside Up	candlestick	1.16
▲	KDJ Cross Up	indicator	1.14
▲	CCI OS Exit	indicator	1.09
▲	STOCH OS Exit	indicator	1.09
▲	HMA Direction Up	indicator	0.99
▲	TTM TREND Trend Up	indicator	0.94

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPTrend forming

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Oversold exit signals and trend breakouts on 4H suggest a short-term bounce.
Higher timeframes (1H, 2H, 4H, 1D) remain bearish, so this is likely a counter-trend move.
Resistance at 1.12731 is the immediate upside target; support at 1.11044 is the key downside level.
Watch for a failure to hold above support or a break below the recent low to invalidate the bullish signal.

The EUR/USD 4H signal has fired a cluster of oversold exit indicators (CCI, STOCH, WILLR) alongside trend-following breakouts (T3, ALMA, HMA) and a KDJ cross up, suggesting a short-term momentum shift to the upside. However, the broader picture remains bearish: the 4H, 1H, 2H, and daily timeframes all show bearish trends, with the daily trend solidly bearish. The signal is thus a counter-trend bounce within a larger downtrend, not a reversal.

Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.12731 and support at 1.11044. The bounce has room to run toward resistance, but a failure to break above it would likely see the pair resume its downtrend. The 15m and 30m timeframes are bullish, but the higher timeframes are bearish, creating a conflicting picture. Traders should treat this as a tactical long within a bearish context, with a clear invalidation below the recent swing low or the 1.11044 support.

Catalysts

▲ Cluster of oversold exits (CCI, STOCH, WILLR) indicates exhausted selling pressure.
▲ Breakouts on T3, ALMA, and HMA confirm upward momentum shift.
▲ KDJ cross up adds to the bullish confluence.
▲ Bullish alignment on 15m and 30m timeframes supports the immediate bounce.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (1H, 2H, 4H, 1D) are bearish, so the bounce could be short-lived.
▼ Resistance at 1.12731 is a strong nearby level that could cap upside.
▼ If the pair fails to hold above 1.11044 support or breaks below the recent swing low, the bullish signal is invalidated.
▼ The 90% probability is based on the signal strength, but counter-trend signals are inherently riskier.