GBP/USD – 4H – BUY

BUY Counter-trend 3× UPDATED

2026-11-09 02:00 UTC 18 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.39 %

Entry

1.33804

Target

1.35033 +0.92 %

closes in profit

Stop

1.32731 −0.80 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 4 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average +0.01 % per trade 624 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 624 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.45 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.31 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.32 % 17 % at stop avg −0.48 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: T3 Break Up, EMA 200 Break Up, ALMA Break Up +11 more

Trend at entry: in 3 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 37,587 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.0 % ↑ +25.7 vs previous candle

VERY STRONG ⚡ Confluence +4% Swing

▲ Bullish 100 % (51.45) ▼ Bearish 0 % (0.00)

model score 100.0 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 5 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.8 % vs 18.9 % on average · stopped out 16.2 % vs 12.6 % (forex, 779 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for GBP/USD

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDCPI y/y●●●Forecast 4.2%Previous 3.7%in 12h
13:30TodayUSDCore CPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%in 12h
13:30TodayUSDCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%in 12h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (9 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	T3 Break Up	indicator	3.05
▲	EMA 200 Break Up	indicator	2.96
▲	ALMA Break Up	indicator	2.73
▲	HMA Break Up	indicator	2.63
▲	ULTOSC OS Exit	indicator	2.18
▲	CCI OS Exit	indicator	2.06
▲	WILLR OS Exit	indicator	1.86
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	1.80
▲	TTM TREND Trend Up	indicator	1.78
▲	KDJ Cross Up	indicator	1.76
▲	STOCH OS Exit	indicator	1.74
▲	SMA 200 Retreat Up	indicator	1.56
▲	BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up	indicator	1.32
▲	Long Line Bullish	candlestick	1.08
▲	Three Outside Up	candlestick	1.07

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNTrend forming

UPTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Oversold exit signals across multiple oscillators align with a bounce off the lower Bollinger Band.
The break above the EMA 200 and SMA 200 on the 4H adds bullish confluence.
Higher timeframes (1H-8H) are still bearish, so this is likely a counter-trend move.
Watch resistance at 1.35033 and support at 1.32731 for direction.

The 4H GBP/USD signal has fired a cluster of oversold-exit oscillators (CCI, STOCH, ULTOSC, WILLR) alongside bullish price-action confirmations: a retreat up from the lower Bollinger Band, breaks above the EMA 200 and T3, and a retreat above the SMA 200. This confluence suggests that the recent bearish momentum is exhausting and that buyers are stepping in near the lower band. However, the higher timeframes (1H, 2H, 4H, 8H) remain in solid bearish trends, so this signal may represent a counter-trend bounce rather than a full reversal. The 15m and 30m are just beginning to form bullish trends, which supports the idea of a short-term recovery.

Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.35033 and support at 1.32731. A sustained move above resistance would strengthen the bullish case, while a break below support would invalidate the setup. Given the conflicting higher timeframe trends, traders should treat this as a tactical long opportunity within a larger downtrend, using tight risk management and watching for momentum confirmation on the 1H and 2H charts.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple oversold exit signals (CCI, STOCH, ULTOSC, WILLR) indicate fading downside momentum.
▲ Price retreating up from the lower Bollinger Band suggests a bullish reversal attempt.
▲ Breaks above the EMA 200 and T3, plus a retreat above the SMA 200, show bullish momentum on the 4H.
▲ Short-term timeframes (15m, 30m) are forming bullish trends, supporting a near-term bounce.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (1H-8H) are in solid bearish trends, which could cap upside or lead to a continuation lower.
▼ The 1D trend is only 'trend forming' bullish, lacking strong long-term support.
▼ If price breaks below the nearest support at 1.32731, the bullish signal is invalidated.
▼ The signal may be a counter-trend bounce; a failure to hold above the EMA 200 could signal a false break.