USD/CAD – 4H – SELL

SELL Counter-trend 2× UPDATED

2026-11-09 02:00 UTC 18 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.17 %

Entry

1.41036

Target

1.39296 +1.23 %

closes in profit

Stop

1.43000 −1.39 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 4 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average +0.01 % per trade 624 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 624 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.45 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.31 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.32 % 17 % at stop avg −0.48 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: KDJ Cross Down, ZSCORE Extreme High Exit, SMA 200 Retreat Down +5 more

Trend at entry: in 2 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 37,587 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.0 % ↑ +25.7 vs previous candle

VERY STRONG ⚡ Confluence +3% Swing

▲ Bullish 0 % (0.00) ▼ Bearish 100 % (4.05)

model score 100.0 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 5 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 6 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.4 % vs 18.9 % on average · stopped out 15.0 % vs 12.6 % (forex, 668 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

Loading…

Signal evolution

Events for USD/CAD

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Previous 0.4%in 12h
13:30TodayUSDCore CPI●●●Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896in 12h
13:30TodayUSDCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.8%Previous 2.6%in 12h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (9 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	STOCH OB Exit	indicator	2.67
▲	RSI OB Exit	indicator	1.74
▲	CCI OB Exit	indicator	1.65
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.34
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.32
▼	SMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.18
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.16
▼	ALMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.06
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	0.85
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	0.80
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.69

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNTrend forming

UPVery strong trend

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

12H

UPTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple overbought exits and moving-average retreats signal a bearish pullback on the 4H chart.
The broader trend across 1H, 2H, and 4H is still bullish, so this is likely a correction, not a reversal.
Watch support at 1.39296 for confirmation of downside; resistance at 1.43000 is the key invalidation level.
Signal strength is weak, so expect limited downside and potential for a bounce if support holds.

The 4H USD/CAD signal stack is uniformly bearish, with multiple overbought exits (CCI, RSI, STOCH) and a cluster of moving-average retreats (SMA 200, ALMA, HMA) alongside a KDJ cross down and a BOP zero cross down. This suggests momentum is fading after an extended bullish run, and the pair is likely to correct lower. However, the signal's strength is weak, and the broader trend across higher timeframes (1H, 2H, 4H) remains bullish, so this is best viewed as a pullback within a larger uptrend rather than a reversal.

Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.43000 and support at 1.39296. A break below the nearest support would confirm bearish continuation, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the bearish thesis. The confluence of overbought indicators and moving-average retreats on the 4H chart adds weight to the sell signal, but the conflicting higher-timeframe trend and weak signal strength warrant caution for traders considering short positions.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of overbought exits across CCI, RSI, and STOCH on the 4H timeframe.
▼ Multiple moving-average retreats (SMA 200, ALMA, HMA) align with the bearish momentum.
▼ KDJ cross down and BOP zero cross down add further bearish confirmation.
▼ Bearish trend forming on lower timeframes (15m, 30m) supports the pullback scenario.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (1H, 2H, 4H) remain bullish, which could limit downside and fuel a rebound.
▲ The signal strength is weak, reducing the probability of a sustained move lower.
▲ A break above the nearest resistance at 1.43000 would invalidate the bearish setup.
▲ Nearby support at 1.39296 may hold, leading to a sideways consolidation or reversal.