USD/JPY – 4H – BUY

BUY 1× UPDATED

2026-11-10 10:00 UTC 10 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.10 %

Entry

158.517

Target

158.949 +0.27 %

closes in profit

Stop

157.255 −0.80 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 2 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 634 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 634 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.45 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.31 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.33 % 17 % at stop avg −0.48 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: Trendline Break Up, T3 Break Up, EMA 200 Retreat Up +13 more

Trend at entry: in 5 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 38,060 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

46.9 % ↓ −14.1 vs previous candle

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +25% Swing

▲ Bullish 96 % (98.29) ▼ Bearish 4 % (4.22)

model score 41.7 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 3 candles

Loading…

Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

13:30TomorrowUSDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 1 day
13:30TomorrowUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 1 day
15:00TomorrowUSDExisting Home Sales m/m●●○Forecast 0.0%Previous 1.5%in 1 day

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 50% — below this the other side leads

Weakening. Conviction is lower than at entry — worth watching, no action implied.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (10 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	Trendline Break Upbreak + retest	trendline	2.96
▲	T3 Break Up	indicator	2.36
▲	EMA 200 Retreat Up	indicator	2.34
▲	SMA 200 Retreat Up	indicator	2.31
▲	KAMA Retreat Up	indicator	2.14
▲	MACD Signal Cross Up	indicator	2.06
▲	TSI Signal Cross Up	indicator	2.01
▲	CTI OS Exit	indicator	1.96
▲	DPO Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.82
▲	AROON Strong Uptrend	indicator	1.78
▲	DI CROSS Cross Up	indicator	1.71
▲	CCI Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.70
▲	KDJ Cross Up	indicator	1.64
▲	DM CROSS Cross Up	indicator	1.51
▲	BIAS Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.50
▲	Long Line Bullish	candlestick	1.14
▼	WILLR OB Entry	indicator	1.01
▼	AROON Strong Downtrend	indicator	0.87

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bullish momentum on the 4H timeframe with a 96% probability and very strong signal strength.
Multiple indicators (Trendline Break Up, MACD Cross, CCI, DI/DM Cross) confirm the bullish move.
Higher timeframes (8H, 12H, 1D) are bearish, so this could be a counter-trend rally.
Key levels: resistance at 158.768, support at 157.255; watch for a break or rejection.

The USD/JPY 4H signal is overwhelmingly bullish, with a 96% probability and very strong strength, driven by a cluster of momentum and trend indicators. The Trendline Break Up, AROON Strong Uptrend, CCI Zero Cross Up, DI Cross Up, DM Cross Up, MACD Signal Cross Up, and WILLR OB Entry all align to confirm upward momentum. The presence of both AROON Strong Uptrend and Strong Downtrend suggests a recent sharp reversal, but the bullish signals dominate, indicating that buyers have seized control. The signal is supported by a broad set of indicators across trendline, candlestick, and indicator groups, reflecting a multi-faceted bullish confluence.

However, the higher timeframes (8H, 12H, 1D) remain bearish, which introduces a potential conflict. While the 4H and lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h, 2h) are bullish, they are mostly choppy or trend-forming, lacking strong trend scores. This suggests the current bullish move may be a counter-trend rally within a larger downtrend. Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 158.768 and support at 157.255. A break above resistance would confirm bullish continuation, while a loss of support would invalidate the signal and likely resume the broader bearish trend.

Catalysts

▲ Confluence of multiple bullish signals across trendline, candlestick, and indicator groups.
▲ Consistent bullish alignment across all lower timeframes (15m to 4H).
▲ Strong momentum indicators (CCI, MACD, DI/DM) all crossing up, supporting the trend.
▲ AROON strong uptrend indicates the new trend is gaining strength.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframe bearish trends (8H, 12H, 1D) may weigh on the pair.
▼ Low trend scores on all timeframes suggest the move may be choppy and prone to reversal.
▼ Immediate resistance at 158.768 could cap upside; a failure to break may lead to pullback.
▼ If price falls below support at 157.255, the bullish signal is invalidated.