AVAX/USDT – 4H – SELL

SELL 2× UPDATED

2026-11-11 20:00 UTC 18 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +2.33 %

Entry

8.5140

Target

7.7730 +8.70 %

closes in profit

Stop

9.0140 −5.87 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 5 of 12

Target and stop are fixed (taken from chart levels).

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 54 of 100 crypto 4h signals ended in profit · on average −0.02 % per trade 2,230 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 2,230 closed crypto 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

32 % at target avg +2.55 % 22 % holding time ended, in profit avg +2.75 % 24 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −2.73 % 22 % at stop avg −3.64 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

This trade, as of now: about 10 of 100 trades in a state like this reached their target. For comparison: 32 of 100 across all crypto 4h signals.

Measured per candle on past crypto trades and checked on trades not used for learning (off by 0.5 points on average, 1.3 on live trades). Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: MACD Hist Hidden Bear Div, RSI Hidden Bear Div, Momentum Hidden Bear Div +5 more

Trend at entry: in 4 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 39,429 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

66.1 % ↑ +3.2 vs previous candle

STRONG Swing

▲ Bullish 10 % (5.00) ▼ Bearish 90 % (45.10)

model score 90.0 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (5091 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 5 candles

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Signal evolution

Events for AVAX/USDT

Full calendar

13:30TomorrowUSDPPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 1.3%in 19h
13:30November 17, 2026USDCore Retail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.7%Previous 0.9%in 4 days
13:30November 17, 2026USDRetail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.8%in 4 days

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (12 Nov 2026, 00:02 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	MACD Hist Hidden Bear Div	divergence	3.25
▼	RSI Hidden Bear Div	divergence	2.81
▼	Momentum Hidden Bear Div	divergence	2.67
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.10
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.80
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	1.58
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.47
▼	VORTEX Cross Down	indicator	1.18

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A powerful bearish cluster on the 4H signals a high-probability downside move.
Hidden divergences on RSI, MACD, and Momentum suggest the prior uptrend is weakening.
Resistance at 9.01400 is the key level to watch; rejection here confirms bearish bias.
Support at 7.77300 is the immediate downside objective; a break below could accelerate selling.

The 4H chart for AVA/XUSDT has triggered a dense cluster of bearish signals, including ERI Bear Zero Cross Down, HMA Retreat Down, HMA Direction Down, TTM Trend Down, VORTEX Cross Down, and hidden bearish divergences on RSI, MACD, and Momentum. This confluence of momentum, trend, and divergence indicators points to a strong bearish shift on the 4H timeframe, with the probability rated at 100% and strength very strong. The alignment across multiple indicator families suggests that downside momentum is building and that the current bullish structure on the 4H may be losing steam.

Across higher timeframes, the 8H and 12H are still bullish but choppy, while the 1D is bearish and choppy. This mixed higher-timeframe backdrop means the 4H bearish signal is not yet fully confirmed on the macro trend, but the 1D bearish bias adds weight. The nearest resistance at 9.01400 is a key ceiling; a failure to reclaim it would reinforce the bearish case. The nearest support at 7.77300 is the immediate downside target, and a break below that would open the door to further declines. Traders should watch for a close below the 4H structure or a sustained rejection at resistance to confirm the signal.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple independent indicator families (momentum, trend, divergence) all point the same direction.
▼ Hidden bearish divergences indicate that the recent higher highs were not supported by momentum.
▼ The 1D timeframe is bearish, providing a longer-term tailwind for the 4H sell signal.
▼ Very strong signal strength (100% probability) suggests high confluence among the fired signals.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (8H, 12H) are still bullish, which could limit downside or cause a bounce.
▲ If price reclaims and holds above 9.01400, the bearish signal would be invalidated.
▲ The 2H timeframe is bullish, creating a conflicting intermediate-term view.
▲ A choppy/sideways condition on several timeframes could lead to false breakouts or whipsaws.