Economic data for IWM
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- November 10, 2026USDCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Previous 0.4%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI●●●Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.8%Previous 2.6%
- November 10, 2026USDCPI y/y●●●Forecast 4.2%Previous 3.7%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%
- November 10, 2026USDCPI●●●Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298
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- November 13, 2026USDCore PPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 0.7%in 2 days
- November 13, 2026USDPPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 1.3%in 2 days
- November 17, 2026USDCore Retail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.7%Previous 0.9%in 6 days
- November 17, 2026USDRetail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.8%in 6 days
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value.
Both worlds over time
Technical and news signals of the last 90 days on one timeline.
IWM fundamental outlook
From news analysis — different time windows than the trading horizons above · as of 09.09.2026
- A September 9 signal with impact 10 warns that the Russell 2000 is filled with 'very shortable' stocks, making it acutely vulnerable to margin friction and refinancing hurdles.
- Trump's tariffs, flagged on August 14, are an existential threat to small businesses, directly raising input costs and squeezing profit margins for IWM constituents.
- The earlier bullish thesis of a short squeeze, driven by Goldman Sachs' June 28 alert on positioning extremes, has been invalidated by the new evidence of fundamental stress.
- Morgan Stanley's July 13 call for earnings growth to spread beyond tech is now contradicted by the tariff and refinancing headwinds hitting small-cap names.
- Nasdaq's fast-track delisting rule from July 23 offers only marginal quality improvement for IWM, with an impact score of just 3 and limited direct relevance.
- The Wellington rotation trade signal from June 18 is stale and has been overtaken by the bearish catalysts, with no new data supporting a revival of the reflation trade.
- Signal consistency is low: the last two signals are bearish with high impact, while the four prior are bullish but stale, creating a clear bearish regime shift.
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) faces a sharp near-term deterioration in outlook, driven by a September 9 signal highlighting the index's vulnerability due to a high concentration of 'very shortable' stocks and expensive refinancing hurdles for companies with weak free cash flow. This bearish catalyst, carrying an impact score of 10, directly contradicts earlier bullish rotation narratives from Morgan Stanley's Wilson and Goldman Sachs, which had pointed to broadening earnings growth and an imminent short squeeze in hated sectors. The most recent data point confirms that the short-interest thesis has inverted: rather than fueling a squeeze, the elevated short interest now represents a structural headwind as margin friction and refinancing costs bite. The tariff threat from August 14 compounds this pressure, with analysts warning that Trump's tariffs pose an existential threat to small businesses, directly squeezing IWM's core constituents through higher input costs and policy uncertainty. The earlier bullish signals from June and July, centered on sector rotation and earnings acceleration, are now stale and have been invalidated by the fresh evidence of fundamental stress in small-cap names. The signal set reveals a clear regime shift from a rotation-driven rally to a refinancing- and tariff-driven decline, with the most recent and highest-impact signals pointing decisively lower.
62 days ago · Based on 6 signals
📝 Overview Generated automatically
IWM has been the subject of 6 signals across 6 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bullish (67%).
Breakdown: 4 bullish, 2 bearish, 0 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Goldman traders point to positioning extremes in unloved sectors, often found in small caps (1×), High short interest in Russell 2000 names (1×), Rotation from growth to value (1×). Most-cited risk factors: Small caps may underperform if recession fears rise (1×), Short squeezes in small caps can be short-lived due to low liquidity (1×), Economic slowdown could hurt small-caps more (1×).
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