How to Read an Economic Calendar: Consensus, Actual and Surprise

What is an economic calendar?

An economic calendar is the schedule of announced economic data releases and central bank decisions. Each entry shows the time, the currency, the name of the figure and its importance, plus three values: the previous value, the analysts' forecast (the consensus) and, once published, the actual value. If you trade currencies, indices, gold or cryptocurrencies, it tells you when to expect sudden price moves.

The figures come from statistics offices such as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Eurostat, Destatis and the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), and from central banks such as the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank. Surveys such as the purchasing managers' indices (PMI) or the Ifo business climate index add to them. Most figures are monthly, gross domestic product is quarterly, and US initial jobless claims come out every week. The major central banks usually set their policy rate eight times a year, the Swiss National Bank four times.

When are the most important figures released?

The agencies publish at fixed local times.

The FinScans calendar shows all times in UTC. 8:30 a.m. New York time is 13:30 UTC in winter and 12:30 UTC in summer. Because the US and Europe change their clocks on different days, the gap to your own clock shifts by one hour for a few weeks in spring and autumn.

How do you read an entry? Previous, consensus and actual

A calendar row answers three questions: what came out last time (previous), what do analysts expect (consensus, labelled "Forecast" in the FinScans calendar), and what was actually reported (actual)? For the price, the gap between actual and consensus almost always matters most.

The surprise: actual minus consensus

The surprise is the actual value minus the consensus. If the consensus is 0.3% and 0.5% is reported, the surprise is plus 0.2 percentage points. Markets trade expectations: a good number that everyone expected is already in the price. Movement comes from the part nobody expected.

How big a surprise is depends on the figure. For inflation, 0.2 percentage points is a lot, because the monthly readings rarely swing much. For new jobs in the US employment report, 20,000 jobs above or below the consensus is closer to noise: the BLS itself states a statistical uncertainty of well over 100,000 jobs for the monthly change.

Headline and core, m/m and y/y, seasonally adjusted

Many releases come in several versions at the same minute. Mixing them up means reading a surprise where there is none.

• m/m, q/q, y/y: change from the previous month, quarter or year. The yearly rate can rise even though the month was quiet, when a weak month from the previous year drops out of the comparison (base effect).
• Annualised: the US reports GDP growth against the previous quarter scaled up to a full year, the euro area does not. 2% in the US is roughly 0.5% for the quarter.
• Core rate: inflation excluding energy and food. Central banks pay particular attention to it because it fluctuates less.
• Seasonally adjusted: most figures are adjusted for recurring effects. "n.s.a." in the name means "not seasonally adjusted".
• Units: the FinScans calendar shows values as the source writes them, with "K" for thousand, "M" for million and "B" for billion.

Consensus or previous: what do you compare the actual with?

With the consensus. The comparison with the previous value shows the direction of the economy, but that direction is usually already part of the analysts' forecast. You compare with the previous value only when there is no consensus.

Which releases matter? Importance and categories

The biggest moves come from rate decisions, inflation and labour market data, and GDP and purchasing managers' indices of the major currency areas. In the FinScans calendar, three dots stand for high, two for medium and one dot for low impact.

Importance is a guide. What the market watches changes: while a central bank is fighting inflation, price data take centre stage, and during recession fears it is the labour market. Then even a medium-importance release moves the price if it touches the question the market is focused on. The calendar assigns every release to a category that can be filtered on its own, for example the inflation releases in the calendar.

The chain of effects: why a figure moves prices

A surprise first shifts expectations for the central bank. If inflation comes in higher than expected or the labour market stronger, the market prices in higher rates or rates staying high for longer. From there the effect spreads to the individual markets.

• Rates and bonds: yields on short-dated government bonds usually react first, because they reflect the expected policy rates of the coming months.
• Currency: higher rate expectations tend to strengthen a currency. For a pair such as EUR/USD, what counts is the comparison between both sides.
• Stocks and indices: higher rates weigh on valuations, good economic data help earnings, the outcome is open.
• Gold: gold pays no interest. Rising rate expectations and a firmer dollar tend to weigh on it.
• Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and other coins often react to major US releases like other risk assets, a firmer dollar tends to weigh on them.

When the chain breaks

• Already priced in: if the market expected more than the consensus shows, a value above the consensus can still disappoint.
• "Buy the rumour, sell the news": after the release traders take profits, and the price runs against the surprise.
• Risk sentiment: strong data can push stocks lower because they make higher rates more likely ("good news is bad news").
• Revisions: a sharp correction of the previous month can cancel the surprise in the current month.
• Mixed signals: if headline and core point in different directions, the first move often reverses.

Teaching examples: how to read a release

The following cases are teaching examples with round numbers, not real releases.

Teaching example 1: inflation above consensus, core in line

Previous 3.0%, consensus 3.1%, actual 3.4%: the headline rate surprises by plus 0.3 percentage points. At the same minute the core rate comes out with a consensus of 2.8% and an actual of 2.8%, so without a surprise. The headline rate points to higher rate expectations and a firmer currency. The core rate shows, however, that the price pressure comes mainly from energy and food. Because the central bank looks more closely at the core rate, the reaction can be weaker or turn after the first candle.

Teaching example 2: labour market with a revision

The consensus for new jobs is 150,000, and 200,000 are reported: plus 50,000. At the same time the previous month is cut from 180,000 to 100,000. Together the two months add up to 300,000 jobs instead of the expected 330,000. The labour market is therefore weaker than the headline suggests.

Teaching example 3: rate decision without a surprise

The consensus expects an unchanged policy rate, and the central bank leaves it unchanged. There is no surprise in the figure, the move comes from the statement and the press conference, for example when the central bank hints at an early cut. That is why the FinScans calendar lists press conferences and speeches as a category of their own.

Using the economic calendar in each trading style

The holding period decides whether you avoid a release or hold through it. Three phases count: before, the first minutes and the hours after.

Economic calendar in scalping (15m, 30m)

In scalping on 15m and 30m, trades last minutes to a few hours, so a major release hits almost every open position. At the start of the session, check the calendar with the period "Today" and the impact "High" for the currencies of your pairs. In the minutes before such a release, do not open a trade, and close or protect open positions.

After the figure, spreads widen, stops are filled at worse prices (slippage), and the first candle often swings both ways. Because spread and fees make up a large part of the target in scalping, this costs particularly much here. Wait until the first 15m candle after the release has closed and the spread is back to normal. After that, a pullback to the high or low of this candle can offer an entry. US data at 8:30 a.m. New York time fall into the overlap of the London and New York sessions.

Economic calendar in day trading (1h, 2h)

In day trading on 1h and 2h, you close positions within the day. The calendar belongs in the daily plan: which high-impact releases fall into your trading hours and affect the pairs you watch? Beforehand, reduce the position or move the stop to break-even if the trade is already in profit.

After the release, the closed 1h candle is a better yardstick than the first minutes. It shows whether the market accepts the surprise or gives the move back. A major figure often sets the direction or the range for the rest of the day: a breakout from the range of the release candle in the direction of the surprise is one approach, a return into the range a warning sign. On the day of the US employment report, the European afternoon is often turbulent.

Economic calendar in swing trading (4h, 8h)

In swing trading on 4h and 8h, you hold positions for days to a few weeks, so major releases can hardly be avoided. At the start of the week, look at the next seven days of high-impact releases, especially rate decisions and inflation data for the currencies involved.

The stop sits behind a real structure, such as a swing high or low, not so tight that a brief spike after a figure triggers it. Choose the position size so that even a gap beyond the stop remains bearable. After the release, what counts is whether the trend on 4h and 8h stays intact. If the pair reclaims a briefly broken level with the next 4h candle, that changes little for the swing. If the 8h candle closes clearly beyond the structure, the figure has changed the picture. If a major figure came out on Friday afternoon, the position can run into a gap over the weekend.

Economic calendar in position trading (12h, 1d)

In position trading on 12h and 1d, you hold for weeks to months. Single figures are mostly noise at this level, as long as they do not change the central bank's path. The sequence matters more: does core inflation rise three months in a row, or does the labour market weaken step by step? This sets the path of rates and with it the broad direction of a currency.

Use the calendar with the 30-day period to keep track of central bank meetings and the major inflation and labour market releases. If a turn in rates is possible at a meeting, build a new position after it rather than before, or reduce an existing one. The stop is far enough away that a single release does not reach it, and the position size is small accordingly. In the FinScans cockpit, the news situation counts for more than the technicals on the long horizon (12h and 1d), as the methodology on horizons explains.

Releases and technical signals: how do they fit together?

Around major releases, more false signals appear. A breakout above resistance in the minutes after a figure is often not a breakout but a reaction that runs back.

A break of a trendline or of a support and resistance level shortly before a high-impact release is less well supported than the same break on a quiet day. Only the closed candle after the release shows whether a break holds or was a false breakout.

FinScans signals exist for forex and crypto pairs, markets that react directly to rate and dollar data. Signals are updated candle by candle and are often closed early when the market turns, as the methodology describes. Read a signal that appeared shortly before a major figure with caution.

How to use the FinScans calendar

The FinScans economic calendar shows, without filters, the releases with high and medium impact from the previous day to seven days ahead. With the filters you choose the period (today up to 30 days), impact, currency and category, and holidays can be added. Each row shows the time in UTC, the currency, the importance as dots and, where available, actual, forecast and previous.

In the cockpit of an asset, a heads-up appears at the overall assessment when a high-impact release is due in the next hours or has just been published. The box "Economic data for …" summarises what was released recently and what is coming up. Each published figure is assessed against the consensus forecast, or against the previous value if there is no consensus, as "better" or "worse than expected" for the currency.

For currency pairs, gold, silver and cryptocurrencies, it also states whether the figure supports the asset or weighs on it, and where price data exist, the measured price move 60 minutes after the release. If several figures come out at the same minute, one heads-up can say "supports" and another "weighs on": a mixed picture. The cockpit also shows the news situation, meaning reports rated bullish, bearish or neutral and weighted by their impact (methodology on the news situation).

The next high-impact releases and the most recently published values from the FinScans calendar:

Hybrid checklist: what the machine reports, what you check yourself

FinScans provides the release, time, importance, consensus and previous value, and after publication the actual, the assessment and the price reaction. The decision stays with you, as described in hybrid trading. Before and after a release, check:

1. Which high-impact releases affect the currencies of my positions today or this week?
2. Is my stop behind a real structure, and does a gap remain bearable? More on this in risk management.
3. Is the surprise large, measured against the usual range of this figure?
4. Was the previous month revised, and do core and headline point in the same direction?
5. Does the first closed candle after the release confirm the direction, and is the spread back to normal?
6. Does the reaction fit the trend of the higher timeframe and the news situation in the cockpit?

Frequently asked questions

What does consensus mean in an economic calendar?

The consensus is the average of the forecasts that analysts at banks and research firms submit before a release. In the FinScans calendar it is labelled "Forecast". It shows what the market expects. The gap between the actual value and the consensus, the surprise, explains a large part of the price reaction. If there is no consensus, the previous value serves as a fallback for comparison.

Why does a price fall despite good figures?

Because a good figure may already have been expected and priced in. If the actual value is above the previous one but below the consensus, it is a disappointment. Profit-taking after the release, revisions of the previous month and mixed signals from headline and core add to this. For stocks, strong data can also make higher rates more likely and therefore weigh on prices.

Which time zone does FinScans use for the releases?

UTC, Coordinated Universal Time. The agencies publish at fixed local times, many US figures for example at 8:30 a.m. New York time, which is 13:30 UTC in winter and 12:30 UTC in summer. Convert to your local time and watch out for the weeks in which the US and Europe change their clocks on different days.

Which releases are the most important?

The strongest reactions usually follow central bank rate decisions and press conferences, as well as inflation data, the US employment report, GDP and the purchasing managers' indices of the major currency areas. Which of them matters most at a given time depends on what the market is focused on. In the FinScans calendar they carry three dots for high impact.

Sources

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index, monthly releases.
• Eurostat: Euro indicators, release calendar of Eurostat's short-term economic data.
• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: Meeting calendars and information, schedule of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).