ING favors the Czech koruna over regional peers, citing inflation data that supports a November rate hike, while maintaining a bearish stance on the Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, and Romanian leu.
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky identifies the Czech koruna as a preferred asset within the CEE region due to anticipated inflationary pressures in September. This expected data is projected to provide the necessary justification for the Czech National Bank to implement a rate hike in November, decoupling the currency's performance from broader, more dovish regional trends.
The koruna is viewed as less sensitive to global market narratives and is supported by specific local inflation data that may trigger a November rate hike.
ING maintains a bearish bias for these currencies, forecasting unchanged monetary policy in both Poland and Romania.
ING expects higher September inflation in Hungary but maintains a bearish regional FX bias, implying the forint is likely to underperform.
ING forecasts unchanged policy in Poland and maintains a bearish regional FX bias, suggesting the zloty remains under pressure.
ING forecasts unchanged policy in Romania and maintains a bearish regional FX bias, suggesting the leu remains under pressure.
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky projects higher September inflation across the Czech Republic and Hungary, positioning the Czech koruna for potential gains. While the Czech data supports a November rate hike, ING maintains a bearish outlook for the Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, and Romanian leu amid a broader regional FX bias.
ING views the Czech koruna as less sensitive to global market narratives and expects upcoming inflation data to provide the necessary support for a central bank rate hike in November.