Analyst report 📋 Bonds 🌍 United States

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Targets 5.36% Following Trendline Defense

Societe Generale sees the US 10-year Treasury yield targeting 5.36% if it clears the 5.05% resistance level following a successful defense of 4.81% support.

🕐 1 min read

1 assets impacted (Bonds). Net bias: 1 Bullish, 0 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: US10Y ↑ 5/10 (65% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (1)

US10Y
Bullish 🤖 65%
📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

Societe Generale's rates team sees the 10-year yield extending post-CPI gains after holding trendline support near 4.81%, now testing the 50-DMA. A break above the 5.05% pivot targets the 5.16%/5.18% gap and the October high near 5.36%. Bullish for the yield, though the bank flags possible consolidation between 4.81% and 5.05%.

Catalysts
  • ▲ 10-year yield defending multi-month trendline and January 2025 peak near 4.81% after post-CPI gains
  • ▲ Resistance break above 5.05% would open targets at 5.16%/5.18% and the October high near 5.36%
Risk Factors
  • ▼ Short-term consolidation between 4.81% and 5.05% cannot be ruled out
  • ▼ The 5.05% hurdle must be overcome before the larger up move towards 5.36% unfolds

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

  • The 10-year Treasury yield defended a multi-month trendline and the January 2025 peak near 4.81%.
  • A breakout above the 5.05% pivot level targets the 5.16%–5.18% gap and the October high of 5.36%.
  • Societe Generale notes the yield is currently challenging its 50-day moving average.
  • Short-term consolidation is possible within the 4.81% to 5.05% range.

📝 Executive Summary

Societe Generale reports that the US 10-year Treasury yield is extending gains after successfully defending support at 4.81%. Analysts note the yield is currently testing its 50-day moving average, with a potential breakout above the 5.05% pivot level setting the stage for a move toward the October high of 5.36%.

❓ FAQ

What are the key levels for the US 10-year yield?

Support sits near 4.81% (trendline and January 2025 peak), with consolidation seen between 4.81% and 5.05%. Above 5.05%, Societe Generale targets the gap at 5.16%/5.18% and then the October high near 5.36%.

What is driving the rise in the 10-year yield?

A sharp up move following CPI data, with the yield defending key trendline support near 4.81% and now challenging the 50-day moving average.