AUD/USD climbs above 0.7012 resistance as hawkish RBA commentary fuels speculation of a November rate hike, with traders now focused on the upcoming Q3 CPI report to confirm the trend.
The AUD/USD pair has experienced upward momentum following RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's comments regarding the deterioration of the Australian inflation outlook. This hawkish rhetoric has significantly increased market expectations for a November rate hike, moving the probability from approximately 27% to a range of 40–45%, allowing the pair to breach the 0.7012 resistance level.
The release of the Q3 CPI report on October 28 is the critical event that will determine if the current rally is durable.
Market participants repriced the probability of a November RBA rate hike, lifting it from 27% to between 40% and 45%.
The Australian Dollar surged after RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser signaled a worsening inflation outlook, driving market expectations for a November rate hike from 27% to 45%. The currency pair successfully cleared the 0.7012 resistance level and is now eyeing a critical test between 0.7024 and 0.7035.
The AUD/USD pair rallied because RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser indicated that inflation risks have worsened, leading markets to price in a higher probability of a rate hike in November.
The next critical event is the release of Australia's Q3 CPI report on October 28, which will determine if the current market repricing is justified.