Rystad Energy warns that Strait of Hormuz oil flows will stay below pre-war levels through next year, supporting crude prices as geopolitical instability persists in the Middle East.
Rystad expects Strait of Hormuz oil flows to remain below pre-war levels and the Middle East to stay far from normal next year, with only a limited US-Iran agreement possible by mid-2027. Persistent supply disruption supports crude prices over the coming weeks, though gradual recovery talk caps upside.
The article says Hormuz oil flows are unlikely to return to pre-war levels and the Middle East will remain far from normal next year, implying persistent supply constraints.
A limited US-Iran agreement by mid-2027 could allow oil flows to gradually recover, reducing supply-risk premium.
The article says Strait of Hormuz oil flows are unlikely to return to pre-war levels, with only a limited US-Iran agreement possible by mid-2027 and the Middle East far from normal next year. That keeps supply-risk premium in Brent, although gradual recovery prospects limit the upside.
Brent is a global crude benchmark, and the article says Hormuz oil flows will likely stay below pre-war levels, keeping supply risk elevated.
A broader US-Iran settlement could allow oil flows through Hormuz to recover more quickly than Rystad expects.
Rystad Energy projects that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war levels in the near term, as regional instability persists. While a limited US-Iran agreement could emerge by mid-2027 to facilitate a gradual recovery, fundamental geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, keeping supply-risk premiums elevated for global crude benchmarks.
The report indicates that supply constraints in the Strait of Hormuz will persist, keeping a supply-risk premium embedded in global crude prices.
Rystad suggests a limited US-Iran agreement could emerge by mid-2027, which would allow for a gradual, rather than immediate, recovery in oil transit.