USD/JPY 12H SELL

· 16 hours ago
SELL
96%
▼ SELL
VERY STRONG
Position
Prognose: 56% historisch
⚡ Confluence +60%
▲ Bullish 4% (2.87) ▼ Bearish 96% (70.05)
USD/JPY  ·  12H
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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

Signals Fired Category Weight
Double Top chart_pattern 3.16
Stoch Regular Bear Div divergence 2.99
RSI Regular Bear Div divergence 2.68
MA Break Down indicator 2.49
MIDPRICE Break Down indicator 2.48
MIDPOINT Break Down indicator 2.45
EMA Break Down indicator 2.31
MAMA PRICE Break Down indicator 2.28
DEMA Break Down indicator 2.19
KAMA Break Down indicator 1.96
HT TRENDLINE Break Down indicator 1.90
Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (0%) fibonacci 1.65
Resistance Level Retreat Down sr 1.57
HT TRENDMODE Mode to Trend indicator 1.50
MACD Zero Cross Down indicator 1.47
WILLR OS Entry indicator 1.37

Trend Context

15M
DOWNSolid trend
30M
DOWNSolid trend
1H
DOWNVery strong trend
2H
DOWNVery strong trend
4H
DOWNSolid trend
8H
DOWNTrend forming
12H
DOWNSolid trend
1D
DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways
  • A massive bearish confluence across multiple signal groups (indicators, patterns, trendlines) points to a high-probability sell setup.
  • All timeframes are bearish, with the strongest momentum in 1H and 2H, confirming trend alignment.
  • The nearest resistance at 163.98400 is the key level to watch; a rejection there could confirm further downside.
  • No immediate support is defined, so the downside is open but be prepared for potential volatility.
The USD/JPY 12H chart has triggered a dense cluster of bearish signals, including a Double Top pattern, MACD Zero Cross Down, and breakdowns below DEMA, EMA, KAMA, and MA lines, alongside a higher-timeframe trendline break. This confluence, reinforced by WILLR oversold entry and multiple additional signals across indicator, chart pattern, Fibonacci, support/resistance, and divergence groups, points to strong selling pressure. The trend is bearish across all timeframes from 15m to 1d, with the strongest momentum in the 1H and 2H frames (4/5), indicating solid alignment and follow-through.

Key resistance sits at 163.98400, which now serves as a critical pivot; a retest of this level could offer a selling opportunity if rejected. With no immediate support defined, the downside is open, but traders should watch for potential bounce zones from prior structure or psychological levels. The very strong probability (96%) and high signal count suggest a high-conviction setup, yet the absence of a clear support level increases the risk of sharp counter-trend rallies. Maintaining discipline with stop-losses above the resistance is essential.
Catalysts
  • Strong trend alignment across all timeframes, especially 1H and 2H with very strong trend scores.
  • Confluence of multiple breakdown signals (EMA, DEMA, KAMA, MA, trendline) reinforcing bearish momentum.
  • Double Top pattern and MACD zero cross down provide classic bearish reversal confirmation.
  • High signal probability (96%) and very strong strength rating.
Risk Factors
  • The lack of a defined support level means price could fall sharply, but also leaves room for unexpected bounces.
  • Oversold conditions (WILLR OS) may trigger short-term corrections or consolidation before further downside.
  • If price reclaims the 163.98400 resistance, the bearish thesis weakens and could signal a false breakdown.
  • Higher timeframe (1D) trend is only 'forming' (2/5), so the daily picture is not yet fully bearish, which may limit downside momentum.
Symbol USD/JPY
Timeframe 12H
Direction SELL
Probability 96%
Strength VERY STRONG
Date 2026-07-31 00:00
cat_ Forex Forex

Support & Resistance

Level Price Formed
R1 163.98400 2026-07-23

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