USD/JPY – 4H – BUY

2026-07-31 00:00 UTC · 13 hours ago

BUY

69%

▲ BUY

MODERATE

Swing

Prognose: 30% historisch

▲ Bullish 69% (6.01) ▼ Bearish 31% (2.73)

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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Double Top	chart_pattern	3.12
▲	CMO OS Exit	indicator	1.83
▲	ADXR Trend Strong	indicator	1.50
▲	Fibonacci Break UpTrend (0%)	fibonacci	1.33
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	1.18
▲	Long Line Bullish	candlestick	1.08

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPSolid trend

DOWNVery strong trend

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bullish signals on 4H (Double Top, Fibonacci break, STOCHF cross) suggest a potential bounce, but higher timeframes are bearish.
The trend is strongly bearish on 1H and 2H, so this buy signal is counter-trend and may be short-lived.
Watch resistance at 163.94700; a break above could confirm a reversal, while support at 160.48800 is the invalidation level.
Signal strength is weak (probability 62%), so position sizing should be conservative.

The 4H USD/JPY signal is a BUY, but it stands against a broader bearish backdrop. The signal is driven by a confluence of technical factors: a Double Top pattern, a Fibonacci Break UpTrend (0%), a Long Line Bullish candlestick, and a STOCHF KD Cross Up, alongside a CMO OS Exit. These indicate a potential short-term bounce or reversal attempt. However, the trend across higher timeframes (1H, 2H, 4H) is strongly bearish, with ADXR Trend Strong confirming the strength of the downtrend. This suggests the buy signal may be counter-trend, and the probability is only 62% with weak strength.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 163.94700 and support at 160.48800. A break above resistance could signal a stronger reversal, while a move below support would invalidate the bullish setup. Given the conflicting timeframes, traders should exercise caution and consider the bearish momentum on higher timeframes.

Catalysts

▲ Confluence of multiple bullish signals on 4H: Double Top, Fibonacci Break UpTrend, Long Line Bullish, STOCHF KD Cross Up, and CMO OS Exit.
▲ The CMO OS Exit indicates oversold conditions, which often precede a bounce.
▲ Fibonacci Break UpTrend (0%) suggests a potential trend reversal from a key level.
▲ Short-term timeframes (15m, 30m) are showing bullish momentum, which may support a move higher.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (1H, 2H, 4H) are strongly bearish, and the ADXR Trend Strong confirms the downtrend's strength, which may overpower the bullish signals.
▼ The buy signal is counter-trend; if the bearish momentum persists, the bounce could fail quickly.
▼ A drop below the nearest support at 160.48800 would invalidate the bullish setup and likely trigger further downside.
▼ The signal strength is weak (probability 62%), so the move may lack conviction.