USD/JPY – 4H – SELL

2026-07-31 16:00 UTC · 14 hours ago

SELL

90%

▼ SELL

VERY STRONG

Swing

Prognose: 56% historisch

▲ Bullish 10% (0.92) ▼ Bearish 90% (8.56)

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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Double Top	chart_pattern	2.42
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.59
▼	Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (0%)	fibonacci	1.57
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	1.45
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.27
▲	BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up	indicator	0.92

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNVery strong trend

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish confluence with multiple signals firing on the 4H chart.
Trend is bearish across all timeframes, with very strong momentum on lower timeframes.
Watch the 163.94700 resistance level; a break below could accelerate downside.
High probability (90%) and very strong strength suggest a high-conviction sell setup.

The USD/JPY 4H chart has triggered a confluence of bearish signals, including a Double Top pattern, BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCHF KD Cross Down, BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up, HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down, and a Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend at 0%. These signals collectively indicate strong selling pressure and a likely continuation of the downtrend. The trend is bearish across all major timeframes, with very strong trend scores on the 30m, 1h, and 2h charts, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Key resistance is at 163.94700, which aligns with the Double Top pattern's neckline and Fibonacci retracement level. A break below this level would confirm the bearish continuation, with the next support unknown. The alignment of multiple indicators and timeframes suggests a high-probability trade setup, but traders should watch for any reversal signals or a break back above resistance to invalidate the bearish thesis.

Catalysts

▼ Double Top pattern is a classic bearish reversal pattern, adding confluence.
▼ BOP and STOCHF both show bearish crossovers, confirming selling momentum.
▼ BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up indicates price retracing to the lower band before continuing down.
▼ Strong trend scores across multiple timeframes (4/5 on 30m, 1h, 2h) support the bearish move.

Risk Factors

▲ Potential for a bounce off the 163.94700 resistance if it holds, leading to a false breakout.
▲ Higher timeframe (8h) shows only a forming trend (2/5), which could weaken the move.
▲ Watch for any bullish reversal patterns or momentum divergence that could signal a trend change.
▲ If price breaks above 163.94700, the bearish setup is invalidated.