USD/JPY – 4H – SELL

2026-07-31 08:00 UTC · 15 hours ago

SELL

91%

▼ SELL

VERY STRONG

Swing

Prognose: 56% historisch

⚡ Confluence +27%

▲ Bullish 9% (2.77) ▼ Bearish 91% (29.26)

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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Double Top	chart_pattern	2.73
▼	BBANDS LOWER Break Down	indicator	2.72
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.74
▼	Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (0%)	fibonacci	1.69
▼	TEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.61
▼	MIDPRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.58
▲	RSI OS Entry	indicator	1.40
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.37
▲	WILLR OS Entry	indicator	1.37
▼	Tweezers Top	candlestick	1.18
▼	Belt Hold Bearish	candlestick	1.01
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.98

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNVery strong trend

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A strong SELL signal is active on USD/JPY 4H with 91% probability and very strong strength.
Bearish trend is consistent across all timeframes, with the strongest signals on 1H and 2H.
A Double Top pattern and multiple indicators (BOP, RSI, STOCHF, WILLR, BBANDS, MIDPRICE, TEMA) confirm the bearish momentum.
Watch for a potential bounce at the nearest resistance of 163.94700, but the lack of support suggests downside may continue.

The USD/JPY 4H chart is flashing a high-probability SELL signal (91% strength) as a confluence of bearish indicators aligns. A Double Top pattern has completed, confirmed by a BOP Zero Cross Down, indicating sellers are in control. Momentum oscillators (RSI, STOCHF, WILLR) all show oversold entries, but the price is breaking below the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting strong downside momentum. The MIDPRICE and TEMA are retreating, reinforcing the bearish trend.

Across timeframes, the trend is consistently bearish from 15m up to 1D, with the strongest conviction on the 1H and 2H (4/5). This alignment supports the bearish outlook. The nearest resistance sits at 163.94700, which could act as a pullback level for sellers. However, with no clear support below, the pair may be entering a phase of rapid decline, so traders should watch for potential bounces or reversals.

Catalysts

▼ Trend alignment across all timeframes, with solid to very strong bearish trends on 1H and 2H.
▼ Double Top pattern confirmed by BOP Zero Cross Down, indicating a shift in buying pressure.
▼ Break below the lower Bollinger Band and retreats in MIDPRICE and TEMA reinforce the downside momentum.
▼ Multiple oversold entries (RSI, STOCHF, WILLR) suggest strong selling pressure, though they also hint at potential short-term exhaustion.

Risk Factors

▲ Oversold conditions on RSI, STOCHF, and WILLR could lead to a short-term bounce or consolidation, slowing the downtrend.
▲ The nearest support is undefined, which could lead to sharp moves but also increases the risk of a rapid reversal if the trend exhausts.
▲ The 8H and 1D trends are only 'trend forming' (2/5), meaning the longer-term bearishness is not yet fully established, so the pair could see a pullback against the 4H signal.
▲ If price reclaims the 163.94700 resistance, the bearish setup may be invalidated, and a move higher could occur.