USD/JPY – 2H – BUY
BUY
90%
▲ Bullish 90% (32.73)
▼ Bearish 10% (3.84)
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Signal evolution
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | Bear Flag | chart_pattern | 3.84 |
| ▲ | Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (79%) | fibonacci | 2.54 |
| ▲ | MIDPOINT Retreat Up | indicator | 2.35 |
| ▲ | SMA Retreat Up | indicator | 2.32 |
| ▲ | MIDPRICE Retreat Up | indicator | 2.31 |
| ▲ | HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up | indicator | 2.27 |
| ▲ | STOCHRSI KD Cross Up | indicator | 2.04 |
| ▲ | BOP Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.97 |
| ▲ | HT SINE Cross Up | indicator | 1.80 |
| ▲ | MAMA PRICE Retreat Up | indicator | 1.77 |
| ▲ | AROON Cross Up | indicator | 1.32 |
| ▲ | AROONOSC Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.32 |
| ▲ | AROON Strong Uptrend | indicator | 1.28 |
Trend Context
15MUPChoppy / sideways
30MUPChoppy / sideways
1HUPTrend forming
2HDOWNVery strong trend
4HDOWNVery strong trend
8HDOWNVery strong trend
12HDOWNSolid trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Strong bullish momentum on 2H with multiple indicators confirming upside.
- Bear Flag pattern suggests a bullish continuation after consolidation.
- Higher timeframes are bearish, so this is a counter-trend signal.
- Watch resistance at 163.90400; a break above could open further upside.
The USD/JPY signal on the 2H timeframe is strongly bullish, with a confluence of momentum and pattern indicators firing together. The Bear Flag pattern suggests a bullish continuation after a brief consolidation, while the Aroon indicators (Cross Up, Strong Uptrend, and Aroon Oscillator Zero Cross Up) confirm that the uptrend is gaining strength and breadth. The Balance of Power (BOP) Zero Cross Up and Stochastic RSI (KD Cross Up) add further confirmation of buying pressure and momentum shifting upward. Additionally, the HT Trendline Retreat Up and MAMA Price Retreat Up indicate that price is pulling back to key dynamic support levels, offering a potential entry point for the continuation move.
However, the higher timeframes (2H and above) are showing a very strong bearish trend, which creates a conflict. The bullish signal is primarily a counter-trend move within a larger downtrend. The nearest resistance at 163.90400 is a critical level; if price fails to break above it, the bullish scenario could be invalidated. Conversely, the nearest support at 155.22400 is far below, suggesting that a significant move would be needed to change the higher timeframe trend. Traders should watch for a decisive break above resistance to confirm the bullish bias, while being aware that the higher timeframe trend may limit upside potential.
However, the higher timeframes (2H and above) are showing a very strong bearish trend, which creates a conflict. The bullish signal is primarily a counter-trend move within a larger downtrend. The nearest resistance at 163.90400 is a critical level; if price fails to break above it, the bullish scenario could be invalidated. Conversely, the nearest support at 155.22400 is far below, suggesting that a significant move would be needed to change the higher timeframe trend. Traders should watch for a decisive break above resistance to confirm the bullish bias, while being aware that the higher timeframe trend may limit upside potential.
Catalysts
- ▲ Confluence of multiple bullish indicators (Aroon, BOP, StochRSI) on 2H.
- ▲ Bear Flag pattern completed, indicating a continuation of the prior uptrend.
- ▲ Price retreating to trendline and MAMA support, providing a potential bounce zone.
- ▲ Strong trend scores on lower timeframes (15m-1h) support short-term bullish momentum.
Risk Factors
- ▼ Higher timeframes (2H and above) are strongly bearish, which could overpower the 2H bullish signal.
- ▼ Resistance at 163.90400 is nearby; failure to break above could lead to a reversal.
- ▼ Momentum indicators may fade if price stalls at resistance, especially with conflicting higher timeframe trends.
- ▼ The signal is counter-trend, so a break below the recent swing low would invalidate the bullish setup.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
2H
Direction
BUY
Probability
90%
Strength
VERY STRONG
Date
2026-08-04 08:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 163.90400 | 2026-07-29 |
| R2 | 163.94700 | 2026-07-28 |
| R3 | 163.98400 | 2026-07-23 |
| S1 | 155.22400 | 2026-08-03 |
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