USD/JPY – 4H – SELL

2026-08-04 04:00 UTC · 51 minutes ago

SELL

66%

▼ SELL

MODERATE

Swing

Prognose: 30% historisch

⚡ Confluence +2%

▲ Bullish 34% (3.81) ▼ Bearish 66% (7.52)

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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	MAMA PRICE Break Up	indicator	2.47
▼	Double Top	chart_pattern	2.42
▼	SMA CROSS 50 200 Death Cross	indicator	1.86
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.84
▲	T3 Retreat Up	indicator	1.27
▲	Long Legged Doji	candlestick	1.00

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

DOWNVery strong trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bearish signals cluster on 4H: Double Top, Death Cross, and STOCHF cross down.
Higher timeframes (4H, 8H) are strongly bearish, but lower timeframes are bullish, so watch for a pullback.
Resistance at 163.947 is the key level to monitor; a break above would invalidate the bearish outlook.
The Long Legged Doji and T3 retreat suggest indecision but lean bearish.

The 4H USD/JPY chart has fired a cluster of bearish signals, led by a Double Top pattern, a Death Cross (50/200 SMA), and a STOCHF KD Cross Down. These are reinforced by a Long Legged Doji candlestick and retreating T3 and MAMA price breaks, all pointing to sustained downside pressure. The confluence of chart pattern, moving averages, and momentum oscillators strengthens the bearish case at this timeframe.

Trend alignment across timeframes is mixed but leans bearish: the 4H and 8H show very strong bearish trends (4/5), while 2H and 12H are also bearish. However, the 15m, 30m, and 1H are still bullish, suggesting near-term upside may provide a pullback opportunity for sellers. The nearest resistance at 163.947 is a key level to watch; a break above would invalidate the bearish setup, while a rejection from this level could accelerate the decline.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple bearish signals converge: Double Top, Death Cross, STOCHF KD Cross Down.
▼ Strong bearish trend on 4H and 8H (trend score 4/5).
▼ Resistance at 163.947 is likely to hold, given the bearish momentum.

Risk Factors

▲ Lower timeframes (15m-1H) are bullish, which could trigger a bounce toward resistance.
▲ A break above 163.947 would invalidate the Double Top and Death Cross.
▲ The Long Legged Doji may signal indecision; if followed by a bullish close, bearish momentum could fade.
▲ Watch for weakening bearish momentum on 4H if price stalls above support.