USD/JPY – 1H – SELL
SELL
72%
▲ Bullish 28% (5.77)
▼ Bearish 72% (14.55)
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Signal evolution
Events for USD/JPY
Full calendar- TodayUSDADP Employment Change Weekly●●○Previous 15Kin 6h
- TodayUSDExisting Home Sales (Jul)●●○Forecast 4.07MPrevious 4.09Min 8h
- TodayUSDExisting Home Sales MoM (Jul)●●○Forecast -0.7%Previous -2.4%in 8h
All times UTC.
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | Trendline Break Up | trendline | 2.92 |
| ▼ | T3 Break Down | indicator | 2.23 |
| ▼ | Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%) | fibonacci | 1.87 |
| ▼ | STOCH KD Cross Down | indicator | 1.45 |
| ▼ | EMA 200 Retreat Down | indicator | 1.14 |
| ▼ | Spinning Top Bearish | candlestick | 0.80 |
Trend Context
15MUPTrend forming
30MUPSolid trend
1HUPTrend forming
2HUPTrend forming
4HDOWNSolid trend
8HDOWNVery strong trend
12HDOWNVery strong trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Multiple bearish signals align on the 1H timeframe, increasing the likelihood of a downward move.
- Higher timeframes (4H to 1D) are strongly bearish, supporting the sell signal.
- Watch the nearest support at 156.67200; a break below could accelerate the decline.
- The nearest resistance at 160.87200 is the key level to monitor for invalidation.
The 1H SELL signal on USD/JPY is driven by a confluence of bearish indicators, including a Trendline Break Up (which often precedes a reversal), a STOCH KD Cross Down, an EMA 200 Retreat Down, a T3 Break Down, and a Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%). The presence of a Spinning Top candlestick adds to the bearish sentiment, suggesting indecision that may resolve lower. The signal's probability stands at 74% with moderate strength, indicating a reasonably high conviction but not an extreme one.
Across timeframes, the picture is mixed but leans bearish on higher timeframes. The 4H, 8H, 12H, and 1D timeframes all show solid to very strong bearish trends, while the 1H and lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 2H) are still bullish but with weaker trend scores. This suggests that the higher-timeframe downtrend is likely to reassert itself, and the 1H signal may be an early indication of a shift. Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 160.87200 and support at 156.67200. A break below the support would confirm the bearish momentum, while a move above resistance would invalidate the signal.
Across timeframes, the picture is mixed but leans bearish on higher timeframes. The 4H, 8H, 12H, and 1D timeframes all show solid to very strong bearish trends, while the 1H and lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 2H) are still bullish but with weaker trend scores. This suggests that the higher-timeframe downtrend is likely to reassert itself, and the 1H signal may be an early indication of a shift. Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 160.87200 and support at 156.67200. A break below the support would confirm the bearish momentum, while a move above resistance would invalidate the signal.
Catalysts
- ▼ Confluence of bearish signals: Trendline Break Up, STOCH KD Cross Down, EMA 200 Retreat Down, T3 Break Down, Fibonacci Break DownTrend, and Spinning Top.
- ▼ Strong bearish trends on higher timeframes (8H, 12H) with trend scores of 4/5.
- ▼ Fibonacci Break DownTrend at 0% suggests the retracement has completed, favoring a continuation lower.
Risk Factors
- ▲ Lower timeframes (15m-2H) are still bullish, which could lead to a bounce before the downtrend resumes.
- ▲ The signal strength is moderate, not strong, so the move may lack momentum.
- ▲ If price breaks above the nearest resistance at 160.87200, the bearish signal would be invalidated.
- ▲ A Spinning Top can also indicate consolidation; a lack of follow-through could result in a sideways move.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
1H
Direction
SELL
Probability
72%
Strength
MODERATE
Date
2026-08-10 18:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 160.87200 | 2026-07-31 |
| R2 | 163.73600 | 2026-07-30 |
| R3 | 163.90400 | 2026-07-29 |
| S1 | 156.67200 | 2026-08-07 |
| S2 | 156.23500 | 2026-08-03 |
| S3 | 155.22400 | 2026-08-03 |
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