USD/JPY – 8H – BUY
BUY
100%
▲ Bullish 100% (15.71)
▼ Bearish 0% (0.00)
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Signal evolution
Events for USD/JPY
Full calendar- TodayUSDRetail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (Jul)●●○Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.4%in 11h
- TodayUSDRetail Sales YoY (Jul)●●●Forecast 6%Previous 6.7%in 11h
- TodayUSDRetail Sales Control Group MoM (Jul)●●●Forecast 0.6%Previous 0.5%in 11h
All times UTC.
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%) | fibonacci | 2.22 |
| ▲ | MIDPOINT Retreat Up | indicator | 1.93 |
| ▲ | MA Retreat Up | indicator | 1.92 |
| ▲ | HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up | indicator | 1.91 |
| ▲ | DEMA Retreat Up | indicator | 1.72 |
| ▲ | Trendline Retreat Up | trendline | 1.50 |
| ▲ | BOP Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.48 |
| ▲ | CMO Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.41 |
| ▲ | RSI Midline Cross Up | indicator | 1.41 |
| ▲ | STOCHF KD Cross Up | indicator | 1.29 |
| ▲ | Above The Stomach | candlestick | 0.94 |
| ▲ | Belt Hold Bullish | candlestick | 0.82 |
| ▼ | WILLR OB Entry | indicator | 0.81 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNChoppy / sideways
30MDOWNChoppy / sideways
1HDOWNTrend forming
2HDOWNChoppy / sideways
4HDOWNChoppy / sideways
8HDOWNSolid trend
12HDOWNSolid trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Strong bullish signal cluster on 8H, but against a bearish higher timeframe trend.
- Key resistance at 163.98400; a break could open further upside, but failure may lead to a pullback.
- Support at 156.67200 is the invalidation level; a close below would negate the bullish setup.
- Momentum indicators (RSI, CMO, STOCHF) are turning up, suggesting short-term buying pressure.
The USD/JPY 8H chart has fired a cluster of bullish signals, including Trendline Retreat Up, BOP Zero Cross Up, CMO Zero Cross Up, RSI Midline Cross Up, STOCHF KD Cross Up, WILLR OB Entry, DEMA Retreat Up, and HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up, alongside additional signals from trendline, indicator, candlestick, and Fibonacci groups. This confluence suggests strong upward momentum is building on the 8H timeframe, with multiple oscillators turning bullish from oversold or midline conditions. The presence of both DEMA and HT TRENDLINE retreats underscores that price is bouncing off dynamic support, while the BOP and CMO zero cross ups indicate improving buying pressure and momentum shifts.
However, the higher timeframes (12H and 1D) remain bearish with solid trends, while lower timeframes (15m to 4H) are also bearish, mostly choppy. This creates a conflicting picture: the 8H signal is a counter-trend bounce against the broader bearish structure. The nearest resistance at 163.98400 is a critical level; a break above could signal a larger reversal, but until then, the bounce may be limited. Support at 156.67200 remains the key invalidation zone. Traders should watch for price to hold above the 8H trendline and see if momentum can push through resistance, but should be cautious given the bearish higher timeframe alignment.
However, the higher timeframes (12H and 1D) remain bearish with solid trends, while lower timeframes (15m to 4H) are also bearish, mostly choppy. This creates a conflicting picture: the 8H signal is a counter-trend bounce against the broader bearish structure. The nearest resistance at 163.98400 is a critical level; a break above could signal a larger reversal, but until then, the bounce may be limited. Support at 156.67200 remains the key invalidation zone. Traders should watch for price to hold above the 8H trendline and see if momentum can push through resistance, but should be cautious given the bearish higher timeframe alignment.
Catalysts
- ▲ Multiple bullish signals firing simultaneously on 8H, including trendline, oscillator, and candlestick patterns.
- ▲ RSI and CMO crossing above their midlines indicate strengthening bullish momentum.
- ▲ DEMA and HT TRENDLINE retreats show price holding above dynamic support, suggesting buyers are stepping in.
- ▲ High signal probability (86%) and very strong strength rating reflect robust technical confluence.
Risk Factors
- ▼ Higher timeframes (12H, 1D) are bearish with solid trends, which could cap upside or reverse the bounce.
- ▼ Lower timeframes (15m-4H) are bearish and choppy, indicating weak short-term follow-through.
- ▼ Nearest resistance at 163.98400 may act as a ceiling; failure to break could trigger a sell-off.
- ▼ If price falls below support at 156.67200, the bullish signal is invalidated and the bearish trend resumes.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
8H
Direction
BUY
Probability
100%
Strength
VERY STRONG
Date
2026-08-12 16:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 163.98400 | 2026-07-23 |
| S1 | 156.67200 | 2026-08-07 |
| S2 | 155.22400 | 2026-08-03 |
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