USD/JPY – 2H – BUY

2026-08-13 04:00 UTC · 20 hours ago

BUY

100%

▲ BUY

VERY STRONG

Intraday

Prognose: 61% historisch

⚡ Confluence +60%

▲ Bullish 100% (41.21) ▼ Bearish 0% (0.00)

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

12:30TodayUSDRetail Sales YoY (Jul)●●●Forecast 6%Previous 6.7%in 11h
12:30TodayUSDRetail Sales Control Group MoM (Jul)●●●Forecast 0.6%Previous 0.5%in 11h
12:30TodayUSDRetail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jul)●●○Forecast 0.2%Previous -0.2%in 11h

All times UTC.

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (50%)	fibonacci	2.42
▲	SMA Retreat Up	indicator	2.21
▲	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up	indicator	2.20
▲	MIDPRICE Retreat Up	indicator	2.17
▲	EMA Retreat Up	indicator	2.17
▲	MIDPOINT Retreat Up	indicator	2.13
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	2.08
▲	KAMA Retreat Up	indicator	2.05
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	2.02
▲	MA Retreat Up	indicator	2.01
▲	MOM Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.31
▲	ROC Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.31
▲	ROCR Cross Up	indicator	1.31
▲	Bullish Engulfing	candlestick	1.25
▼	WILLR OB Entry	indicator	0.81

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bullish momentum signals on the 2H chart suggest a potential short-term bounce.
Higher timeframes (4H to 1D) are bearish, so this is likely a counter-trend move.
Watch the nearest resistance at 163.90400; a break above could confirm further upside.
A move below the nearest support at 156.67200 would invalidate the bullish signal.

The USD/JPY 2H signal is strongly bullish (98% probability), driven by a cluster of momentum and indicator signals including BOP, MOM, ROC, and ROCR zero cross ups, STOCHF KD cross up, WILLR overbought entry, and EMA retreat up. These signals suggest that buying pressure is intensifying and that the pair may be reversing from a bearish phase. However, the higher timeframes (4H to 1D) are all bearish, indicating that the broader trend is still down. This creates a conflict: the short-term momentum is turning up, but the longer-term trend is bearish.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 163.90400 and support at 156.67200. If the bullish momentum can push price above the resistance, it could signal a stronger reversal. Conversely, if price fails and drops below support, the bullish signal would be invalidated. Given the strong probability score, traders might expect a bounce, but the bearish higher timeframes suggest caution. The signal may be a counter-trend rally within a larger downtrend, so traders should manage risk carefully.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple momentum indicators (BOP, MOM, ROC, ROCR) all crossing zero up, indicating strong buying pressure.
▲ STOCHF KD cross up and WILLR overbought entry suggest that the short-term momentum is accelerating.
▲ EMA retreat up and HT trendline retreat up indicate that price is pulling back to key moving averages/trendlines, which could act as support.
▲ High probability score (98%) and very strong strength suggest high conviction in the signal.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (4H to 1D) are bearish, which could overpower the short-term bullish momentum.
▼ The 1H and 2H trends are bearish, so the bullish signal is against the immediate trend.
▼ The nearest resistance at 163.90400 is not far above, and if price fails there, the bullish momentum could fade.
▼ If price breaks below the nearest support at 156.67200, the bullish signal would be invalidated.