USD/JPY – 4H – BUY

2026-08-13 16:00 UTC · 4 hours ago

BUY

100%

▲ BUY

VERY STRONG

Swing

Prognose: 56% historisch

▲ Bullish 100% (20.49) ▼ Bearish 0% (0.00)

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

12:30TodayUSDRetail Sales YoY (Jul)●●●Forecast 6%Previous 6.7%in 11h
12:30TodayUSDRetail Sales Control Group MoM (Jul)●●●Forecast 0.6%Previous 0.5%in 11h
12:30TodayUSDRetail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jul)●●○Forecast 0.2%Previous -0.2%in 11h

All times UTC.

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (50%)	fibonacci	2.01
▲	HT SINE Cross Up	indicator	1.70
▲	MIDPRICE Retreat Up	indicator	1.46
▲	MOM Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.45
▲	ROC Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.45
▲	ROCR Cross Up	indicator	1.45
▲	DEMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.39
▲	MIDPOINT Retreat Up	indicator	1.34
▲	EMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.30
▲	DX Trend Strong	indicator	1.24
▲	CCI Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.22
▲	KAMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.17
▲	MA Retreat Up	indicator	1.17
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.06
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	0.94
▲	BBANDS MIDDLE Cross Up	indicator	0.89
▼	WILLR OB Entry	indicator	0.81
▲	Bullish Engulfing	candlestick	0.78

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A very strong bullish signal on 4H, with high probability and multiple momentum indicators aligned.
Higher timeframes are bearish, so this is a counter-trend move that needs to overcome resistance at 163.94700.
Watch for a break above resistance to confirm bullish continuation; a drop below support at 156.67200 invalidates the signal.
The signal includes candlestick and Fibonacci confluence, adding weight to the bullish case.

The USD/JPY 4H signal has fired a dense cluster of bullish momentum indicators, including BOP Zero Cross Up, CCI Zero Cross Up, MOM Zero Cross Up, ROC Zero Cross Up, ROCR Cross Up, STOCHF KD Cross Up, and WILLR OB Entry, alongside a DX Trend Strong reading. This broad confluence suggests a strong upside push on the 4H timeframe, with the signal probability rated at 95% and very strong strength. The candlestick and Fibonacci groups add further weight, implying that the move is supported by price action and key retracement levels.

However, the higher timeframes (8H, 12H, 1D) remain in solid bearish trends, while the 4H itself is still bearish and choppy. This creates a conflicting picture: the 4H bullish signal is firing against the larger downtrend. The nearest resistance at 163.94700 is a critical barrier; a break above it could signal a larger reversal, but failure to hold above it may leave the move as a counter-trend bounce. Support at 156.67200 is the key invalidation level for the bullish case.

Catalysts

▲ Dense cluster of bullish momentum signals (BOP, CCI, MOM, ROC, ROCR, STOCHF, WILLR) all crossing up simultaneously.
▲ DX Trend Strong indicates strong trend strength, supporting the move.
▲ Candlestick and Fibonacci patterns add confluence, suggesting price action and retracement levels align with the bullish bias.
▲ High probability (95%) and very strong strength rating from the signal engine.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (8H, 12H, 1D) are in solid bearish trends, which could cap upside.
▼ The 4H trend is still bearish and choppy, so the bullish signal may be a counter-trend bounce.
▼ Nearest resistance at 163.94700 is a major hurdle; failure to break above it could lead to a reversal.
▼ If price falls below nearest support at 156.67200, the bullish signal is invalidated.