AUD/CAD – 2H – BUY
BUY
79%
▲ Bullish 79% (37.25)
▼ Bearish 21% (9.88)
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Signal evolution
Events for AUD/CAD
Full calendar- TomorrowAUDUnemployment Rate (Jul)●●●Forecast 4.5%Previous 4.4%in 1h
- TomorrowAUDEmployment Change (Jul)●●●Forecast 25KPrevious 76.3Kin 1h
- TomorrowAUDFull Time Employment Chg (Jul)●●○Previous 29.3in 1h
All times UTC.
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | Double Top | chart_pattern | 4.74 |
| ▼ | Trendline Break Down | trendline | 3.78 |
| ▲ | Fibonacci Break UpTrend (24%) | fibonacci | 2.35 |
| ▲ | WILLR OS Exit | indicator | 2.02 |
| ▲ | Support Level Retreat Up | sr | 1.97 |
| ▲ | Double Top Retreat Up | chart_pattern | 1.88 |
| ▲ | Trendline Retreat Up | trendline | 1.79 |
| ▲ | HT TRENDMODE Mode to Trend | indicator | 1.69 |
| ▼ | HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down | indicator | 1.58 |
| ▲ | STOCH OS Exit | indicator | 1.43 |
| ▲ | Spinning Top Bullish | candlestick | 0.99 |
Trend Context
15MUPTrend forming
30MDOWNSolid trend
1HDOWNSolid trend
2HDOWNChoppy / sideways
4HDOWNTrend forming
8HDOWNChoppy / sideways
12HDOWNChoppy / sideways
1DDOWNChoppy / sideways
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Bullish signals on 2H but most timeframes are bearish, so the signal is counter-trend.
- Watch for a break above 0.98785 to confirm bullish momentum, or a drop below 0.98192 to invalidate.
- The 15m is the only bullish timeframe, but it is still forming, so the bullish case is weak.
- The signal is weak (58% probability) with a mix of patterns and indicators, so caution is advised.
The AUD/CAD 2H signal is a BUY, but it is firing against a predominantly bearish backdrop across most timeframes. The 2H chart shows a trendline break down followed by a trendline retreat up, alongside a double top pattern that has also seen a retreat up, suggesting a potential bullish reversal attempt. The stochastic and Williams %R oversold exits add momentum confirmation, while the HT PHASOR inphase cross down and HT TRENDMODE mode to trend indicate a shift in the dominant cycle. However, the 15m timeframe is the only one showing a bullish trend, and it is still forming (2/5). The 30m, 1h, and 4h are all bearish with solid trends, and the 2h itself is choppy/sideways. This mixed picture suggests the bullish signal is tentative and may struggle to gain traction.
Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 0.98785 and support at 0.98192. A break above resistance could confirm the bullish reversal, while a loss of support would invalidate the signal. Given the weak strength (58%) and the bearish higher timeframes, traders should be cautious and wait for confirmation. The confluence of multiple bullish signals on the 2H is notable, but the overall trend alignment is poor, making this a high-risk trade.
Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 0.98785 and support at 0.98192. A break above resistance could confirm the bullish reversal, while a loss of support would invalidate the signal. Given the weak strength (58%) and the bearish higher timeframes, traders should be cautious and wait for confirmation. The confluence of multiple bullish signals on the 2H is notable, but the overall trend alignment is poor, making this a high-risk trade.
Catalysts
- ▲ Multiple bullish signals on the 2H: trendline retreat up, double top retreat up, and oversold exits on stochastic and Williams %R.
- ▲ The 15m timeframe is showing a forming bullish trend, providing some short-term support.
- ▲ The HT PHASOR inphase cross down and HT TRENDMODE mode to trend suggest a potential shift in the dominant cycle.
- ▲ The price is near support at 0.98192, which could act as a springboard for a bounce.
Risk Factors
- ▼ The higher timeframes (30m, 1h, 4h) are bearish with solid trends, which could overwhelm the 2H bullish attempt.
- ▼ The 2H trend itself is choppy/sideways (1/5), indicating a lack of clear direction.
- ▼ A break below the nearest support at 0.98192 would invalidate the bullish signal and likely accelerate the downtrend.
- ▼ The signal strength is weak (58%), and the bullish signals are not aligned across timeframes, reducing reliability.
Symbol
AUD/CAD
Timeframe
2H
Direction
BUY
Probability
79%
Strength
STRONG
Date
2026-08-19 10:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 0.98785 | 2026-08-17 |
| R2 | 0.99250 | 2026-08-05 |
| S1 | 0.98192 | 2026-08-14 |
| S2 | 0.98071 | 2026-08-11 |
| S3 | 0.97509 | 2026-07-30 |
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