AUD/JPY – 4H – BUY

The AUD/JPY 4H signal is overwhelmingly bullish, with a 78% probability and strong strength, driven by a cluster of technical triggers: a Trendline Break Down (bullish breakout), MAMA Price Break Up, T3 Break Up, ALMA Break Up, HMA Break Up, and oversold exits on CTI and RSX. These signals collectively indicate a sharp reversal from a deeply oversold condition, with momentum shifting upward. The ER Level Cross Down and additional indicators confirm that the bearish trend has been exhausted, and buyers are stepping in aggressively.

However, the higher timeframe context is firmly bearish, with the 4H, 2H, and 8H all showing very strong or solid downtrends. The 15M is bullish but choppy, while the 30M and 1H remain bearish. This creates a conflict: the 4H signal suggests a short-term bounce, but it is counter to the dominant trend. The nearest resistance at 114.66700 is a critical ceiling; a break above it could signal a larger reversal, while the nearest support at 112.22100 is the key level to watch—losing it would invalidate the bullish case. The signal is likely a counter-trend rally within a broader downtrend, so traders should treat it as a tactical long with tight risk management.