USD/JPY – 30M – SELL

The USD/JPY pair is exhibiting a strongly bearish setup on the 30-minute timeframe, with a confluence of signals across multiple groups—trendline, indicator, candlestick, and Fibonacci—all pointing to continued downside momentum. The trend is consistently bearish from the 15-minute up to the daily chart, with the strongest readings in the 4-hour and 2-hour timeframes, indicating solid multi-timeframe alignment. The recent retreat from the trendline, combined with a cross below the middle Bollinger Band and the 50-period moving averages (EMA, KAMA, and MA), suggests that sellers are in control. The bearish momentum is also supported by a BOP zero cross down and a MAMA cross down, while the stochastics KD cross up hints at a possible minor pullback before the next leg lower.

Key levels to watch are immediate resistance at 154.390, which was likely the origin of the retreat, and nearest support at 152.940. A break below this support could accelerate the downward move, but the probability is high (93%) and strength is very strong, so the path of least resistance appears to be lower. However, the stochastic cross up could signal a short-term bounce, and traders should watch for a break back above the 154.390 resistance to invalidate the bearish thesis. Overall, the trend is deeply entrenched, with all major timeframes in sync, suggesting that any bounces may be opportunities to add to short positions rather than reversal signals.