USD/JPY – 1H – SELL

SELL 5× UPDATED

2026-09-18 09:00 UTC 17 hours ago

35.3 % ↓ −25.7 zur Vorkerze

WEAK Intraday

▲ Bullish 0 % (0.00) ▼ Bearish 100 % (21.16)

6 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

57.4% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 19.5 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 13 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 10.1 % vs 17.9 % average · stopped out 11.9 % vs 9.0 % (Forex, 159 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 7× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 7× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (18 Sep 2026, 07:00 UTC, updated 5× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	CMO OB Exit	indicator	2.50
▲	RSI OB Exit	indicator	2.49
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	1.87
▲	CCI OB Exit	indicator	1.71
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.51
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.30
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.28
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.14
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.10
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.04
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.00
▼	Collapsing Doji Star	candlestick	0.97
▼	Tweezers Top	candlestick	0.83
▼	KELTNER UPPER Upper Retreat	indicator	0.79
▼	Last Engulfing Top	candlestick	0.64
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.63
▼	Last Engulfing Bottom	candlestick	0.61

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNVery strong trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A dense cluster of overbought exit signals on the 1H suggests a short-term bearish reversal.
The daily trend is strongly bearish, but intermediate timeframes (30m-8h) are still bullish, creating a conflicting outlook.
Key support at 155.32200 is the level to watch; a break below could accelerate downside, while a hold may lead to a bounce.
Signal strength is weak and probability is only 60%, so caution is advised.

The 1H USD/JPY chart has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, including BOP Zero Cross Down, CCI OB Exit, CMO OB Exit, RSI OB Exit, STOCH KD Cross Down, WILLR OB Exit, ER Level Cross Down, and ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down, alongside additional indicators and candlestick patterns. This suggests that momentum, which had been overbought, is now turning lower, with selling pressure building. The confluence of multiple oscillator exits and crossovers points to a potential short-term reversal, though the overall strength is weak and the probability is only 60%.

Across timeframes, the picture is mixed. The 15m and 12h/1d timeframes are bearish, with the daily showing a very strong trend, while the 30m through 8h are bullish. This creates a conflict: the immediate short-term and the longer-term daily trend align bearish, but the intermediate timeframes are still bullish. The nearest support sits at 155.32200, which is a key level to watch. A break below that would confirm the bearish momentum, while a failure to break could see the pair resume the intermediate uptrend.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple overbought exit signals (RSI, CCI, CMO, WILLR) align to indicate fading upside momentum.
▼ The daily timeframe shows a very strong bearish trend, providing longer-term confluence.
▼ The 15m timeframe is also bearish, adding short-term alignment with the 1H signal.
▼ A cluster of candlestick patterns adds extra weight to the bearish signal.

Risk Factors

▲ Intermediate timeframes (30m to 8h) are bullish, which could overpower the short-term bearish signal.
▲ A failure to break below the nearest support at 155.32200 could lead to a bounce and invalidate the bearish setup.
▲ The signal strength is weak and probability is only 60%, meaning the edge is limited.
▲ If the 1H trend flips back to bullish, the bearish signal would be negated.