BTC/USDT – 30M – SELL

SELL 2× UPDATED

2026-09-19 17:00 UTC 1 hour ago

60.1 % ↓ −2.8 zur Vorkerze

MODERATE Scalping

▲ Bullish 26 % (5.50) ▼ Bearish 74 % (15.37)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

52.5% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 73.7 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (5091 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in 7 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 12.9 % vs 37.5 % average · stopped out 38.3 % vs 19.8 % (Crypto, 465 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 50% — below this the other side leads

Holding up. Conviction has not dropped below the halfway mark since entry.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (19 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	SAR Flip Bearish	indicator	2.41
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	2.27
▲	RSI OB Exit	indicator	2.22
▲	CCI OB Exit	indicator	1.97
▲	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up	indicator	1.73
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.52
▼	SMI Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.51
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.48
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.46
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.40
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.33
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	1.31
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.27
▼	Belt Hold Bearish	candlestick	1.00
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	0.96
▼	AO Saucer Bearish	indicator	0.95
▼	DX Trend Weak	indicator	0.91
▼	Bearish Separating Lines	candlestick	0.78

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

UPSolid trend

UPVery strong trend

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

12H

UPTrend forming

UPSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

The 30-minute chart shows a cluster of overbought and momentum signals, suggesting a short-term pullback.
Higher timeframes (1h, 2h, 4h, 1d) remain bullish, so this is likely a corrective move within an uptrend.
Watch the 80844.00 support: a break below could signal a deeper correction, while holding it favors the bullish trend.
The 15-minute timeframe is also bearish, adding weight to the short-term downside bias.

The 30-minute SELL signal is driven by a cluster of overbought exit signals (CCI, RSI, WILLR) and momentum crossovers (BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCH KD Cross Down) alongside a bearish SAR Flip. This suggests that the recent upside push on the 30-minute chart is losing steam, and a short-term pullback is likely. However, the broader trend remains firmly bullish across most higher timeframes (1h, 2h, 4h, 1d), with very strong trend scores on the 1h and 2h. The 15-minute timeframe is also bearish, supporting the short-term downside bias, but the higher-timeframe alignment argues that any decline is likely corrective rather than a reversal.

Key levels to monitor are the nearest resistance at 81741.00 and support at 80844.00. A break below support would confirm the short-term bearish momentum and could open the door to deeper pullback, while a hold above support would reinforce the bullish higher-timeframe trend. The confluence of multiple overbought exits and momentum crossovers on the 30-minute chart, combined with the bearish 15-minute trend, gives the signal moderate strength. Traders should watch for price action at these levels to gauge whether the pullback extends or fades.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple overbought exit signals (CCI, RSI, WILLR) on the 30-minute chart indicate exhausted upside momentum.
▼ Momentum crossovers (BOP, STOCH KD) and a bearish SAR Flip confirm the short-term bearish shift.
▼ The 15-minute timeframe is bearish, aligning with the 30-minute signal for a short-term decline.
▼ The signal's probability of 69% and moderate strength suggest a reasonable edge for the pullback.

Risk Factors

▲ The higher-timeframe trend is strongly bullish (1h and 2h at 4/5), which could overwhelm the short-term bearish signal.
▲ The nearest resistance at 81741.00 is close; a break above it would invalidate the bearish setup and signal renewed upside.
▲ If the 30-minute momentum fails to follow through, the signal could fade quickly, especially with the bullish daily trend.
▲ The signal is based on a 30-minute timeframe, so the move may be short-lived and require quick execution.