AUD/USD – 30M – SELL

SELL NEW

2026-09-29 23:00 UTC 1 hour ago

39.7 % ↓ −2.0 zur Vorkerze

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +10% Scalping

▲ Bullish 6 % (1.99) ▼ Bearish 94 % (29.40)

6 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

56.1% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 27.6 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (29 Sep 2026, 20:30 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Trendline Break Downbreak + retest	trendline	2.56
▼	TRIMA Break Down	indicator	2.13
▼	EMA 50 Retreat Down	indicator	2.08
▼	KAMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.06
▼	SMA 50 Retreat Down	indicator	2.05
▲	KST Signal Cross Up	indicator	1.99
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.93
▼	BIAS Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.73
▼	BBANDS MIDDLE Cross Down	indicator	1.69
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.56
▼	ADX Trend Weak	indicator	1.54

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish signal on 30M with multiple indicators aligned (trendline break, moving average retreats, bearish cross).
Higher timeframes (1H to 12H) are all bearish, confirming the trend direction.
Key levels: support at 0.69783, resistance at 0.70071.
Watch for a break below support to confirm continuation, or a reclaim of resistance to invalidate.

The AUD/USD 30-minute chart has fired a very strong SELL signal, driven by a confluence of bearish signals: a Trendline Break Down, a break below the middle Bollinger Band, and retreats from the EMA 50, KAMA, and SMA 50, alongside a bearish STOCH KD cross. This cluster indicates strong downward momentum on the 30-minute timeframe, with the ADX trend score suggesting the trend is currently robust. The signal is further supported by a bearish alignment across multiple higher timeframes, with the 1H, 2H, 4H, 8H, and 12H all showing solid bearish trends (3/5). The 15-minute and daily timeframes are also bearish but with weaker trend formation, suggesting the overall trend is bearish but may be in an early stage on those frames.

Given the strong bearish alignment, the immediate focus is on the nearest support at 0.69783. A break below this level could accelerate the downtrend. Conversely, the nearest resistance at 0.70071 acts as a barrier; a move back above this level would invalidate the bearish setup. Traders should watch for a continuation toward support, with a close below 0.69783 confirming further downside. However, the 15-minute bullish signal (trend forming) hints at a possible short-term pullback, so caution is advised for aggressive entries.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of bearish signals: trendline break, moving average retreats, and bearish stochastic cross.
▼ Bearish alignment across multiple timeframes (1H, 2H, 4H, 8H, 12H) all showing solid downtrends.
▼ ADX trend score indicates strong trend strength on the 30M.
▼ Price breaking below the middle Bollinger Band suggests increasing downside volatility.

Risk Factors

▲ The 15-minute timeframe shows a bullish trend forming, which could lead to a short-term bounce against the sell signal.
▲ A move back above the nearest resistance at 0.70071 would invalidate the bearish setup and could trigger a short squeeze.
▲ The daily timeframe is only 'trend forming' (2/5), so the longer-term bearish trend is not fully established, which may limit downside potential.
▲ If the 30M ADX weakens (trend weakening), momentum could fade, leading to consolidation rather than a sharp decline.