USD/CHF – 4H – BUY

BUY NEW

2026-10-16 16:00 UTC 51 minutes ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.14 %

Entry

0.82571

Target

0.83950 +1.67 %

closes in profit

Stop

0.82273 −0.36 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 0 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 386 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 386 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

26 % at target avg +0.42 % 24 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.30 % 33 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.30 % 17 % at stop avg −0.49 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: WILLR OS Exit, BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up, STOCH OS Exit +4 more

Trend at entry: in 3 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 23,657 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

59.3 % – first candle

STRONG Swing

▲ Bullish 80 % (10.31) ▼ Bearish 20 % (2.53)

model score 80.3 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 12.6 % vs 18.5 % on average · stopped out 15.1 % vs 12.3 % (forex, 476 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (16 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	WILLR OS Exit	indicator	1.71
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.56
▲	BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up	indicator	1.50
▲	STOCH OS Exit	indicator	1.39
▲	SMA 200 Retreat Up	indicator	1.39
▲	HT SINE Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.36
▲	KDJ Cross Up	indicator	1.25
▲	EMA 200 Retreat Up	indicator	1.21
▼	Hanging Man	candlestick	0.96

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPSolid trend

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNTrend forming

UPTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bullish signal cluster on the 4H chart, but higher timeframes are bearish—this is likely a counter-trend bounce.
Key levels: resistance at 0.83950, support at 0.82273. A break above resistance would strengthen the bullish case.
Multiple oversold indicators (STOCH, WILLR) and EMA/SMA retreats suggest the downside momentum is exhausting.
Watch for a shift in the 1H or 2H trend to confirm the reversal; otherwise, the bounce may fade.

The 4H USD/CHF signal stack is overwhelmingly bullish, with multiple oversold exit signals (STOCH, WILLR) converging with a lower band retreat in the Bollinger Bands and a retreat off the 200-period EMAs and SMAs. The KDJ cross up and HT SINE zero-cross add momentum confirmation, while the ER level cross down suggests a potential shift in volatility regime. With an 80% probability and strong strength, this is a high-conviction setup for a bounce off the lower end of the range.

However, the higher timeframes (1H, 2H, 4H, 8H, 12H) are all bearish, creating a clear conflict. The 15m and 30m are already turning bullish, and the 1D is forming a bullish trend, which suggests the bounce may be the start of a larger reversal. The nearest resistance at 0.83950 is the immediate target, while support at 0.82273 is the invalidation zone. The trend alignment is mixed, so traders should watch for a shift in the 1H or 2H to confirm the reversal.

Catalysts

▲ Confluence of oversold exits (STOCH, WILLR) and lower band retreats (BBANDS, EMA, SMA) on the 4H timeframe.
▲ KDJ cross up and HT SINE zero-cross add momentum and cycle alignment to the bullish case.
▲ 15m and 30m are already bullish, and the 1D is forming a bullish trend, hinting at a possible larger reversal.
▲ Strong signal strength (80%) and high probability increase the confidence in the setup.

Risk Factors

▼ The 1H, 2H, 4H, 8H, and 12H timeframes are all bearish, which could overpower the 4H bounce.
▼ The nearest resistance at 0.83950 is close; if the bounce stalls there, the bullish signal may be invalidated.
▼ The support at 0.82273 is the invalidation level; a break below would negate the bullish setup.
▼ The choppy 8H trend suggests low conviction in the higher timeframe, which could lead to a false start.