AUD/CAD – 1H – SELL

SELL 10× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-10-21 15:00 UTC 2 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed after the holding time · result +0.43 %

Entry

0.98794

Target

0.98114 +0.69 %

closes in profit

Stop

0.99664 −0.88 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 15 candles (15 hours), at the market price

So far 52 of 100 forex 1h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 1,216 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,216 closed forex 1h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

16 % at target avg +0.37 % 37 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.15 % 36 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.18 % 12 % at stop avg −0.39 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ALMA Break Down, T3 Break Down, HMA Retreat Down +6 more

Trend at entry: in 3 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 27,668 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 12.4 % vs 18.5 % on average · stopped out 15.7 % vs 12.4 % (forex, 581 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 5× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 5× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC, updated 10× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	ALMA Break Down	indicator	3.00
▼	T3 Break Down	indicator	2.99
▲	CCI OB Exit	indicator	2.55
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.06
▲	STOCH OB Exit	indicator	2.04
▼	SMI Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.86
▼	SMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.80
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.60
▼	STC Level Cross Down	indicator	1.57
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	1.39
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.25
▲	Southern Doji	candlestick	0.87

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPTrend forming

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple overbought exits and downside crosses align on the 1H, supporting a short-term bearish move.
Higher timeframes (15m-4h) are bullish, so this is a counter-trend trade with limited upside.
Watch 0.98114 support: a break confirms bearish momentum; a bounce signals a potential reversal.
Resistance at 0.99664 is the invalidation level; a reclaim would negate the bearish case.

The 1H AUD/CAD signal fires a cluster of bearish indicators as overbought conditions unwind across multiple oscillators (CCI, STOCH, KDJ, SMI) and price breaks below key short-term structures (T3, ER, STC). The SMA 200 retreat adds a longer-term bearish tilt. However, the higher timeframes (15m through 4h) are still bullish and forming, while the 8h, 12h, and 1d are bearish but choppy. This suggests the immediate bearish push is a counter-trend correction within a broader bullish phase, and the trend is not yet aligned across timeframes. The nearest resistance at 0.99664 and support at 0.98114 frame the immediate range; a break below support would confirm the bearish move, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate it.

Traders should treat this as a tactical short within a mixed trend environment. The confluence of overbought exits and downside crosses gives the signal moderate probability, but the lack of bearish alignment on the lower timeframes and the choppy higher-timeframe action argue for caution. The key is to watch the 0.98114 support: a decisive break would shift the balance toward the bearish case, whereas a bounce off support or a push back above 0.99664 would favor the prevailing bullish bias. Momentum is moderate, so the move is likely to be gradual rather than sharp.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of overbought exits (CCI, STOCH, KDJ, SMI) and multiple downside crosses (T3, ER, STC) on the 1H.
▼ SMA 200 retreat adds a longer-term bearish context.
▼ Bearish trend on 8H and higher timeframes, though choppy, supports a broader downtrend.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (15m-4h) are bullish and forming, which could overpower the 1H bearish signal.
▲ The 8H and 1D bearish trends are choppy/sideways, indicating low conviction.
▲ If price reclaims 0.99664, the bearish setup is invalidated; watch for a bounce off support.
▲ Momentum is moderate, so the move may stall or reverse without a clear catalyst.