AUD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 7× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-10-21 09:00 UTC 2 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed after the holding time · result −0.04 %

Entry

111.130

Target

110.547 +0.52 %

closes in profit

Stop

111.688 −0.50 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price

So far 51 of 100 forex 30m signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 2,332 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 2,332 closed forex 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

17 % at target avg +0.23 % 33 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.11 % 40 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.12 % 9 % at stop avg −0.36 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: Stoch Regular Bear Div, MACD Regular Bear Div, ZLMA Break Down +7 more

Trend at entry: in 1 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 27,668 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

⚠ Opened against the trend in 7 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 9.0 % vs 18.5 % on average · stopped out 17.1 % vs 12.4 % (forex, 432 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 9× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 9× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC, updated 7× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Stoch Regular Bear Div	divergence	3.27
▼	MACD Regular Bear Div	divergence	3.02
▼	ZLMA Break Down	indicator	2.10
▼	VORTEX Cross Down	indicator	2.01
▲	CCI OB Exit	indicator	1.98
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.72
▲	SQUEEZE Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.59
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.51
▼	DX Trend Weak	indicator	1.41
▲	Takuri Line	candlestick	1.36
▼	HT SINE Cross Down	indicator	1.33
▲	Dragonfly Doji	candlestick	1.33
▲	Matching Low	candlestick	1.04
▼	WILLR OB Entry	indicator	0.95
▼	STC OB Entry	indicator	0.83

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A dense cluster of overbought and momentum indicators (CCI, Williams %R, Stochastic, STC) supports a short-term sell opportunity on AUD/JPY.
The 30-minute signal is counter to the prevailing bullish trend on higher timeframes, but those trends are weak and choppy, reducing their resistance.
Key invalidation and target levels: resistance at 111.22700 and support at 110.54700; a break below support confirms bearish momentum.
The signal is moderate strength with 72% probability, suggesting a tactical pullback rather than a full trend reversal.

The AUD/JPY 30-minute SELL signal fires as a cluster of overbought and momentum indicators converge: CCI OB Exit, WILLR OB Entry, STOCH KD Cross Down, and STC OB Entry all point to a short-term exhaustion of bullish momentum. The HMA Retreat Down and HT SINE Cross Down add trend-retreat confirmation, while SQUEEZE Zero Cross Up suggests a volatility squeeze that often precedes directional moves. The DX Trend Weak signal indicates that the prevailing trend lacks strength, making it vulnerable to reversal. However, the higher timeframes (15m through 12h) are uniformly bullish, albeit choppy and weak (trend scores of 1-2/5), which creates a conflicting backdrop. Only the 1-day timeframe is bearish and trend-forming, providing some longer-term alignment with the sell signal. The confluence of overbought conditions and weak trend scores across all timeframes suggests that the sell signal may be a counter-trend pullback within a broader bullish context, but the weakness of that trend leaves room for a deeper correction.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 111.22700 and support at 110.54700. A break below support would confirm bearish momentum and could open the door to a larger move, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the signal. Given the moderate strength and 72% probability, traders should treat this as a tactical opportunity rather than a trend change. The divergence between the 30m bearish signal and the higher-timeframe bullish bias is a critical factor; if the higher timeframes begin to strengthen (trend scores rising), the sell signal is more likely to fail. Conversely, if the 1-day bearish trend gains traction, the sell could be the start of a larger correction.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple overbought exit signals (CCI, Williams %R, STC) align on the 30-minute timeframe, increasing the likelihood of a downside move.
▼ The 1-day timeframe is bearish and trend-forming, providing longer-term alignment with the sell signal.
▼ The DX Trend Weak signal indicates that the prevailing bullish trend lacks strength, making it susceptible to reversal.
▼ The SQUEEZE Zero Cross Up suggests a volatility expansion that often accompanies directional moves, potentially amplifying the sell.

Risk Factors

▲ All higher timeframes (15m to 12h) are bullish, and if any of these trends strengthen, the sell signal could be quickly invalidated.
▲ The 30-minute signal is a counter-trend trade; a reclaim of the 111.22700 resistance would signal that bullish momentum remains dominant.
▲ The signal strength is only moderate, and the probability (72%) leaves a 28% chance of failure, so position sizing should be conservative.
▲ The choppy/sideways nature of most timeframes suggests low trend conviction, which could lead to a false breakout or a quick reversal.