AUD/JPY – 4H – SELL

SELL 6× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-10-21 09:00 UTC 2 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed after the holding time · result +1.04 %

Entry

111.071

Target

108.634 +2.19 %

closes in profit

Stop

112.613 −1.39 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 465 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 465 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

26 % at target avg +0.43 % 25 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.30 % 31 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.30 % 18 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ER Level Cross Down, STOCHRSI KD Cross Down, BOP Zero Cross Down +2 more

Trend at entry: in 1 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 27,668 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

⚠ Opened against the trend in 7 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 9.0 % vs 18.5 % on average · stopped out 17.1 % vs 12.4 % (forex, 432 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 5× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 5× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC, updated 6× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.42
▼	STOCHRSI KD Cross Down	indicator	1.22
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.11
▼	Spinning Top Bearish	candlestick	0.97
▼	Bearish Harami	candlestick	0.68

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

All four indicators and both candlestick patterns on the 4H are bearish, signaling a strong short-term sell opportunity.
The bearish signal is counter to the bullish trend on most other timeframes, so treat it as a tactical pullback rather than a confirmed reversal.
Key support at 108.63400 is the invalidation zone; a break below would confirm the downtrend, while a bounce from there would negate the signal.
Resistance at 111.13300 is the nearest ceiling; a reclaim of that level would invalidate the bearish setup.

The 4H AUD/JPY signal stack is uniformly bearish, firing a cluster of momentum, volatility, and candlestick confirmations at the same timestamp. The BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCHRSI KD Cross Down, and ER Level Cross Down all align to indicate a loss of upward drive and a shift in short-term momentum, while the Bearish Harami and Spinning Top Bearish patterns reinforce a loss of buying conviction and a potential reversal. This confluence of indicators and candlestick patterns on the 4H timeframe suggests that sellers are gaining control and a move lower is likely.

However, the broader trend context is mixed. Most timeframes, from 15m up to 12h, are still bullish, with the 2H showing a solid trend and the 1H showing a forming trend. Only the 1D timeframe is bearish, and that is only a forming trend. This means the bearish signal is firing against the prevailing higher-timeframe bullish momentum, which reduces its reliability. The nearest support sits at 108.63400, a long distance from current levels, while resistance at 111.13300 is nearby. A failure to break below the immediate support or a bounce off it would invalidate the bearish case, and the bullish higher timeframes could easily absorb this pullback.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of four independent indicators (BOP, STOCHRSI, ER) all crossing down simultaneously strengthens the bearish case.
▼ Candlestick patterns (Bearish Harami, Spinning Top) confirm waning bullish momentum and potential reversal.
▼ The 1D timeframe is already bearish, providing a longer-term backdrop that supports the 4H sell signal.
▼ The signal fires at a precise time with 100% probability and very strong strength, indicating high conviction in the model.

Risk Factors

▲ Most timeframes (15m to 12h) are still bullish, with the 2H showing a solid uptrend; this higher-timeframe bullish pressure could overpower the 4H bearish signal.
▲ The nearest support at 108.63400 is far below, meaning there is ample room for a bounce before that level is reached; a shallow pullback could stall and reverse.
▲ A Spinning Top is a sign of indecision; it could just as easily lead to consolidation rather than a clear downtrend.
▲ If price reclaims the 111.13300 resistance, the bearish signal is invalidated, and the prevailing bullish trend would likely resume.