USD/CHF – 4H – SELL

SELL NEW

2026-10-23 09:00 UTC 12 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.35 %

Entry

0.82228

Target

0.80672 +1.89 %

closes in profit

Stop

0.83950 −2.09 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 2 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 465 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 465 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

26 % at target avg +0.43 % 25 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.30 % 31 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.30 % 18 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: Trendline Break Down, EMA Retreat Down, MA Retreat Down +7 more

Trend at entry: in 6 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 27,668 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

35.3 % – vs previous candle

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +8% Swing

▲ Bullish 7 % (1.82) ▼ Bearish 93 % (23.71)

model score 8.7 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 3 candles

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (23 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Trendline Break Downbreak + retest	trendline	2.58
▼	EMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.28
▼	MA Retreat Down	indicator	2.16
▼	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down	indicator	1.98
▼	SMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.97
▲	CCI Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.82
▼	KAMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.68
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.39
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.35
▼	Bearish Harami	candlestick	1.13
▼	Spinning Top Bearish	candlestick	0.84

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong confluence of bearish signals on the 4H chart, including trendline break, BOP, CCI, STOCHF, and multiple moving-average retreats.
Bearish trend is present across most timeframes, though 1H and 2H are bullish and sideways, so the bias is not unanimous.
Key support at 0.82178 is the immediate downside target; a break would likely intensify selling.
Resistance at 0.83950 is the critical invalidation zone—if price reclaims this level, the bearish signal weakens.
Probability is very high (92%) with strong strength, but always manage risk and watch for confirmation.

The USD/CHF 4H signal is strongly bearish, with a confluence of technical events: a trendline break down, BOP zero cross down, CCI zero cross up (confirming bearish momentum), STOCHF KD cross down, and multiple moving average retreats (EMA, KAMA, MA) as well as a higher-timeframe trendline retreat. This cluster of signals across candlestick, indicator, and trendline groups points to a well-aligned bearish setup with a probability of 92% and very strong strength.

Trend alignment is mixed but leans bearish. The 4H, 15M, 30M, 8H, 12H, and 1D timeframes all show bearish trends (though some are only forming or choppy), while the 1H and 2H are bullish but choppy/sideways. This suggests the bearish pressure is dominant on the traded timeframe and lower timeframes, while the higher-timeframe bullishness is weak and may be overridden. Key levels to watch: nearest resistance at 0.83950 (which may act as a cap for any pullback) and nearest support at 0.82178 (the target zone). A break below support would likely accelerate the downtrend, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the bearish setup.

Catalysts

▼ Trendline break down plus retreats from multiple moving averages (EMA, KAMA, MA) on the 4H aligns with a solid bearish trend.
▼ BOP zero cross down and CCI zero cross up both confirm bearish momentum in the session.
▼ STOCHF KD cross down adds a short-term momentum confirmation.
▼ Bearish trend scores on lower timeframes (15M, 30M) support continued downside movement.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (1H, 2H) are showing bullish, choppy/sideways trends, which could lead to a corrective bounce.
▲ If price climbs back above the nearest resistance at 0.83950, the bearish setup is likely invalidated, and the trend may reverse.
▲ CCI zero cross up can also signal bullish momentum divergence in some contexts, so watch for price making lower lows while CCI makes higher lows.
▲ Exhaustion of selling momentum is possible given the very strong bearish strength—wait for a reaction at support or a bearish reversal pattern before entering.