USD/JPY – 1H – SELL

SELL 3× UPDATED

2026-10-23 17:00 UTC 6 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.03 %

Entry

156.880

Target

156.075 +0.51 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.344 −0.93 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 15 candles (15 hours), at the market price · now candle 3 of 15

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 52 of 100 forex 1h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 1,216 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,216 closed forex 1h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

16 % at target avg +0.37 % 37 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.15 % 36 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.18 % 12 % at stop avg −0.39 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: KAMA Retreat Down, EMA 50 Retreat Down, SMA 50 Retreat Down +6 more

Trend at entry: in 6 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 27,668 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.0 % ↑ +1.7 vs previous candle

VERY STRONG ⚡ Confluence +20% Intraday

▲ Bullish 3 % (1.25) ▼ Bearish 97 % (36.46)

model score 96.7 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 4 candles

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 50% — below this the other side leads

Holding up. Conviction has not dropped below the halfway mark since entry.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	ICHIMOKU TK Cross Up	indicator	2.59
▲	HT SINE Zero Cross Up	indicator	2.32
▲	STOCH OB Exit	indicator	2.22
▼	KAMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.70
▼	EMA 50 Retreat Down	indicator	1.65
▼	SMA 50 Retreat Down	indicator	1.58
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.55
▲	FISHER Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.49
▼	CMO Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.46
▼	RSI Midline Cross Down	indicator	1.46
▲	RSX Midline Cross Up	indicator	1.42
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.32
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.14
▼	DPO Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.08

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple momentum oscillators (BOP, CMO, RSI) have crossed below their zero/midline levels, confirming a shift to bearish momentum on the 1H chart.
The 1H and 2H timeframes show a solid bearish trend, but higher timeframes are choppy, so the move is still in its early stages.
Key levels: resistance at 157.16100 and support at 156.07500; a break below support would confirm the bearish continuation, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the signal.
The signal is weak (63% probability) and the 15M/30M timeframes are still bullish, so expect possible short-term bounces before the bearish trend fully develops.

The 1H USD/JPY signal is a coordinated bearish push from a cluster of momentum and trend-following indicators: BOP, CMO, and RSI all cross below their zero/midline levels, while STOCH and STOCHF confirm downside momentum, and EMA 50, KAMA, and SMA 50 all retreat downward. This confluence suggests that the recent price action has shifted from a consolidation phase into a fresh down-move, with the 1H and 2H timeframes both showing a solid bearish trend (3/5). However, the signal's strength is weak (63% probability) and the higher timeframes (8H, 12H, 1D) are choppy and sideways, indicating that the bearish momentum is still in its early stages and lacks full multi-timeframe confirmation.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 157.16100 and support at 156.07500. A break below support would confirm the bearish continuation, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the signal. The 15M and 30M timeframes are still bullish and choppy, which could offer short-term counter-trend bounces. Traders should treat this as a developing bearish move rather than a high-conviction trend, and watch for momentum to either accelerate through support or stall at the current levels.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of multiple indicator groups (momentum, trend) all pointing lower at the same time.
▼ The 1H and 2H timeframes are aligned in a solid bearish trend, providing a consistent backdrop for the signal.
▼ The cluster of zero-cross and retreat signals suggests a coordinated shift in price structure, not just a single oscillator blip.
▼ The nearest support at 156.07500 is within reach, offering a clear target for the bearish move to build on.

Risk Factors

▲ The signal strength is weak (63%) and the higher timeframes (8H, 12H, 1D) are choppy and sideways, indicating a lack of full multi-timeframe confirmation.
▲ The 15M and 30M timeframes are still bullish, which could lead to counter-trend bounces that stall the bearish momentum.
▲ If price reclaims the resistance at 157.16100, the signal would be invalidated, suggesting the bearish move was just a pullback within a larger range.
▲ Momentum oscillators can fade quickly in choppy conditions, so watch for RSI or CMO to flatten or turn up before support is reached.