AUD/USD – 4H – SELL

SELL 8× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-10-29 05:00 UTC 4 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed after the holding time · result +0.23 %

Entry

0.70379

Target

0.68941 +2.04 %

closes in profit

Stop

0.71398 −1.45 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 546 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 546 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.43 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.30 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.31 % 17 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: BBANDS UPPER Retreat Down, HMA Retreat Down, ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down +8 more

Trend at entry: in 3 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 33,308 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.4 % vs 17.7 % on average · stopped out 15.4 % vs 12.1 % (forex, 669 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for AUD/USD

Full calendar

04:30TodayAUDRBA Rate Statement●●○in 1h
04:30TodayAUDRBA Monetary Policy Statement●●○in 1h
04:30TodayAUDRBA Interest Rate Decision●●●Previous 4.60%in 1h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 4× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 4× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (29 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC, updated 8× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	CCI OB Exit	indicator	2.68
▼	BBANDS UPPER Retreat Down	indicator	2.13
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.89
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.74
▼	SMI Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.53
▼	DX Trend Weak	indicator	1.45
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.42
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.38
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	1.33
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.32
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.23
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.87

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A dense 4H bearish signal cluster (BOP, CCI, SMI, HMA, BBANDS) points to a high-probability sell setup.
The 1H trend is solidly bearish, but higher timeframes (2H–1D) are still bullish, so treat this as a pullback trade.
Key invalidation: a reclaim of 0.71398 resistance would negate the bearish signal.
Primary downside target is support at 0.68941, but watch for momentum fading or bullish crossovers on the 2H.

The 4H AUD/USD signal stack is overwhelmingly bearish, firing a dense cluster of momentum, volatility, and trend indicators in the same direction. The BOP Zero Cross Down and ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down confirm selling pressure, while the CCI OB Exit and SMI Signal Cross Down indicate momentum is rolling over from overbought conditions. The DX Trend Weak and HMA Retreat Down suggest the prevailing 4H trend is losing upside steam, and the BBANDS UPPER Retreat Down points to volatility compressing from the upper band. With 12+ signals aligned, the probability score of 88% and 'very strong' strength reflect a high-conviction setup.

However, the higher timeframe context is not fully in sync. The 1H trend is solidly bearish, and the 30m is forming bearish structure, which supports the sell signal. But the 2H through 1D timeframes remain bullish, albeit choppy or only trend-forming. This means the sell signal is firing against the larger trend, so the move is likely a corrective pullback rather than a full reversal. The nearest resistance at 0.71398 is the key invalidation zone; a reclaim of that level would negate the bearish thesis. Support at 0.68941 is the primary downside target, but momentum fading or a bullish crossover on the 2H could stall the move.

Catalysts

▼ Strong alignment of 12+ indicators across momentum, volatility, and trend groups.
▼ Solid bearish trend on the 1H timeframe and forming bearish structure on the 30m.
▼ CCI exiting overbought and SMI cross down confirm momentum rollover.
▼ BBANDS upper retreat suggests volatility compression that often precedes downside expansion.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (2H–1D) are still bullish, which could limit the downside or cause a bounce.
▲ Resistance at 0.71398 is the invalidation level; a close above it would nullify the signal.
▲ The 15m is choppy/sideways, so entry timing may be poor without confirmation.
▲ If momentum fades (e.g., CCI flattens or BOP crosses back up), the sell could stall before reaching support.