AUD/JPY – 4H – BUY

BUY 4× UPDATED

2026-11-04 10:00 UTC 21 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.07 %

Entry

111.156

Target

111.564 +0.37 %

closes in profit

Stop

109.489 −1.50 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 5 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 597 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 597 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.42 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.30 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.31 % 17 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: MAMA PRICE Break Up, ALMA Break Up, MA Break Up +14 more

Trend at entry: in 4 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 35,239 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

59.3 % ↑ +24.0 vs previous candle

VERY STRONG Swing

▲ Bullish 89 % (23.90) ▼ Bearish 11 % (3.05)

model score 88.7 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 6 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 4 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 13.3 % vs 18.2 % on average · stopped out 15.1 % vs 12.2 % (forex, 735 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for AUD/JPY

Full calendar

23:30November 9, 2026JPYHousehold Spending m/m●●○Forecast 0.8%Previous 0.1%in 4 days
23:30November 9, 2026JPYHousehold Spending y/y●●○Forecast -2.1%Previous -3.1%in 4 days
23:50November 9, 2026JPYAdjusted Current Account●●○in 4 days

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (4 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC, updated 4× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	MAMA PRICE Break Up	indicator	2.75
▲	ALMA Break Up	indicator	2.43
▲	MA Break Up	indicator	2.40
▲	EMA Break Up	indicator	2.39
▲	MIDPRICE Break Up	indicator	2.29
▲	MIDPOINT Break Up	indicator	2.28
▲	HMA Break Up	indicator	2.22
▲	DEMA Break Up	indicator	2.20
▲	KAMA Break Up	indicator	2.17
▲	HT TRENDLINE Break Up	indicator	1.95
▲	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.95
▲	MAMA Cross Up	indicator	1.77
▲	RSX Midline Cross Up	indicator	1.59
▲	HT SINE Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.54
▲	VORTEX Cross Up	indicator	1.33
▲	FISHER Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.31
▼	BBANDS UPPER Retreat Down	indicator	1.23
▼	KDJ OB Entry	indicator	1.23
▼	Advance Block	candlestick	1.10
▼	HT TRENDMODE Mode to Cycle	indicator	1.08
▼	Deliberation	candlestick	0.99
▲	Long Legged Doji	candlestick	0.78

Trend Context

15M

UPSolid trend

30M

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bullish signal on 4H with multiple indicators aligning, but higher timeframes are bearish.
Resistance at 111.56400 is the immediate upside target; support at 109.48900 is the invalidation level.
Short-term timeframes (15m-2H) are bullish, while 4H and above remain bearish, creating a mixed trend context.
The signal is likely a counter-trend bounce within a larger downtrend; caution advised.

The AUD/JPY 4H signal has fired a dense cluster of bullish indicators, including a break above the upper Bollinger Band, EMA and DEMA breaks, KAMA and MAMA cross-ups, and a trendline break. This confluence suggests strong upward momentum in the short term. However, the higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H, 1D) remain bearish and choppy, indicating that this is likely a counter-trend rally within a larger downtrend. The bullish alignment across 15m to 2H supports the immediate move, but the higher timeframe trend is not aligned, which reduces the reliability of the signal.

Key levels to watch are resistance at 111.56400 and support at 109.48900. A break above resistance would confirm further upside, while a break below support would invalidate the bullish case. Given the mixed trend structure, traders should expect potential volatility and consider the higher timeframe bearish pressure as a limiting factor.

Catalysts

▲ Confluence of multiple bullish breakouts (Bollinger, EMA, DEMA, KAMA, MAMA, trendline) on the 4H chart.
▲ Bullish alignment across lower timeframes (15m to 2H) supports immediate upward momentum.
▲ Very strong signal strength (87% probability) indicates robust momentum in the short term.
▲ Price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band suggests a strong bullish push.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H, 1D) remain bearish, which could cap upside or reverse the move.
▼ The signal is a counter-trend rally; if it fails at resistance, a reversal could be sharp.
▼ Watch for a break below the nearest support at 109.48900, which would invalidate the bullish setup.
▼ Momentum may fade if price stalls near resistance, given the lack of trend alignment on higher timeframes.