AUD/USD – 4H – SELL

SELL 3× UPDATED

2026-11-04 14:00 UTC 21 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.65 %

Entry

0.70156

Target

0.68941 +1.73 %

closes in profit

Stop

0.70680 −0.75 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 5 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 597 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 597 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.42 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.30 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.31 % 17 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: DI CROSS Cross Down, DM CROSS Cross Down, EMA 200 Retreat Down +5 more

Trend at entry: in 4 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 35,239 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.0 % ↑ +25.7 vs previous candle

VERY STRONG ⚡ Confluence +7% Swing

▲ Bullish 7 % (2.39) ▼ Bearish 93 % (31.23)

model score 92.9 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 6 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 4 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 13.3 % vs 18.2 % on average · stopped out 15.1 % vs 12.2 % (forex, 735 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for AUD/USD

Full calendar

13:30TomorrowUSDU6 Unemployment Rate●●○Forecast 7.5%Previous 7.6%in 21h
13:30TomorrowUSDPrivate Nonfarm Payrolls●●○Forecast 39KPrevious 46Kin 21h
13:30TomorrowUSDAverage Hourly Earnings y/y●●○Forecast 3.1%Previous 3.0%in 21h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (4 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	DI CROSS Cross Down	indicator	2.03
▼	DM CROSS Cross Down	indicator	1.79
▼	EMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.51
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.41
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.41
▼	SMA 50 Retreat Down	indicator	1.39
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.32
▲	Long Legged Doji	candlestick	1.10
▼	Tweezers Top	candlestick	0.93

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish signal on the 4H with multiple crossovers and moving average retreats.
Higher timeframes (8H, 12H, 1D) are bearish, supporting the sell bias.
Immediate resistance at 0.70680; a break above would invalidate the signal.
Watch for a pullback to resistance for a potential short entry.

The 4H chart for AUD/USD has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, including a BOP Zero Cross Down, DI CROSS and DM CROSS Cross Downs, a STOCHF KD Cross Down, and multiple moving average retreats (EMA 200, SMA 50, HMA). A Long Legged Doji adds candlestick confirmation. With a 93% probability and very strong strength, the signal points to a continuation of the prevailing bearish trend on the 4H timeframe, which aligns with the bearish readings on the 8H, 12H, and 1D timeframes. However, the lower timeframes (15m to 2h) are still bullish, showing a solid trend (3/5) on the 30m and 1h. This suggests that the bearish move may be in its early stages on the 4H, and a pullback toward the nearest resistance at 0.70680 could present a short entry opportunity. The nearest support at 0.68941 is the immediate downside target, where the pair may find temporary buying interest.

The confluence of multiple indicator crossovers and moving average retreats on the 4H, combined with the higher timeframe bearish alignment, strengthens the case for further downside. The Long Legged Doji at the recent highs indicates indecision and potential reversal, which is consistent with the bearish signals. Traders should watch for a break below the 4H swing low to confirm the continuation, while a sustained move back above the 0.70680 resistance would invalidate the signal. Given the bullish lower timeframes, a brief bounce is possible before the bearish momentum resumes.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of bearish indicators (BOP, DI, DM, STOCHF) on the 4H.
▼ Moving average retreats (EMA 200, SMA 50, HMA) indicate strong bearish momentum.
▼ Higher timeframe bearish alignment (8H, 12H, 1D) supports continuation.
▼ Candlestick pattern (Long Legged Doji) suggests a potential reversal from highs.

Risk Factors

▲ Lower timeframes (15m-2h) are bullish, which could cause a bounce before further downside.
▲ The 4H trend is only 'trend forming' (2/5), so momentum may not be fully established.
▲ A break above the nearest resistance at 0.70680 would invalidate the signal.
▲ The 12H timeframe is choppy/sideways, which may limit the depth of the move.