USD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 4× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-11-03 22:30 UTC 2 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed at target · result +0.57 %

Entry

158.654

Target

157.752 +0.57 %

closes in profit

Stop

159.439 −0.49 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price

So far 51 of 100 forex 30m signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 3,154 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 3,154 closed forex 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

18 % at target avg +0.24 % 33 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.11 % 39 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.12 % 10 % at stop avg −0.35 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: MACD Signal Cross Down, ALMA Retreat Down, MAMA PRICE Retreat Down +4 more

Trend at entry: in 0 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 36,073 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

⚠ Opened against the trend in all 8 timeframes. Target hit 8.5 % vs 18.7 % on average · stopped out 13.8 % vs 12.5 % (forex, 983 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDUnemployment Rate●●●Forecast 4.2%Previous 4.2%in 2h
13:30TodayUSDU6 Unemployment Rate●●○Forecast 7.5%Previous 7.6%in 2h
13:30TodayUSDPrivate Nonfarm Payrolls●●○Forecast 39KPrevious 46Kin 2h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (3 Nov 2026, 23:00 UTC, updated 4× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	RSI OB Exit	indicator	2.27
▲	STOCHRSI KD Cross Up	indicator	1.81
▼	MACD Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.72
▼	ALMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.64
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.60
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.42
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.38
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.32
▼	Bearish Harami	candlestick	1.04

Trend Context

15M

UPSolid trend

30M

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bearish signals on the 30-minute chart suggest a short-term pullback in USD/JPY.
All timeframes are bullish, but higher timeframes are choppy, limiting downside confidence.
Watch the 157.75200 support level; a break below could confirm the bearish move.
The signal is moderate strength, so consider position sizing and risk management.

The USD/JPY 30-minute chart has triggered a cluster of bearish signals, including a BOP Zero Cross Down, MACD Signal Cross Down, RSI OB Exit, and multiple moving average retreats (DEMA, MAMA, ALMA, HMA). These indicators collectively suggest that the recent upward momentum is stalling and a short-term pullback is likely. The confluence of these signals points to a loss of buying pressure, with the RSI exiting overbought territory and the balance of power shifting to sellers.

However, the broader trend structure remains bullish across all timeframes, from the 15-minute to the daily chart. While the shorter timeframes (15m, 30m) show solid trends, the higher timeframes are mostly choppy or sideways, indicating that the bullish trend is not strongly established. The nearest support at 157.75200 is a key level to watch; a break below this could confirm the bearish reversal, while holding it may lead to a bounce. The signal is moderate in strength with a 72% probability, suggesting a tradable opportunity but not a high-conviction setup.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple indicator confluence: BOP, MACD, RSI, and several moving averages all align bearish.
▼ RSI exiting overbought territory often precedes a corrective move.
▼ The signal fires at a time when the 30-minute trend is solid, providing a clear short-term context.

Risk Factors

▲ The broader trend is bullish across all timeframes, which could overpower the short-term bearish signal.
▲ Higher timeframes (2h to 1d) are choppy and not strongly bearish, reducing the probability of a sustained decline.
▲ If price holds above the 157.75200 support, the bearish move may fail and reverse upward.
▲ Momentum could fade quickly given the moderate strength of the signal.