AUD/JPY – 4H – BUY

BUY Counter-trend 7× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-11-06 18:00 UTC 4 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed after the holding time · result +0.19 %

Entry

108.802

Target

111.303 +2.30 %

closes in profit

Stop

106.786 −1.85 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price

So far 51 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 653 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 653 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

24 % at target avg +0.45 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.31 % 33 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.33 % 17 % at stop avg −0.48 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ZSCORE Extreme Low Exit, HMA Direction Up, STOCHRSI KD Cross Up +6 more

Trend at entry: in 1 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 38,768 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

⚠ Opened against the trend in 7 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 10.1 % vs 18.6 % on average · stopped out 16.9 % vs 12.4 % (forex, 615 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for AUD/JPY

Full calendar

23:50November 15, 2026JPYNet Exports Contribution to GDP q/q●●○Forecast -0.1%Previous 0.5%in 4 days
23:50November 15, 2026JPYGDP y/y●●●Forecast -0.3%Previous 1.4%in 4 days
23:50November 15, 2026JPYGDP Price Index y/y●●○Forecast 2.3%Previous 2.6%in 4 days

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 5× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 5× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (6 Nov 2026, 22:00 UTC, updated 7× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	ZSCORE Extreme Low Exit	indicator	1.64
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.45
▲	HMA Direction Up	indicator	1.36
▲	STOCHRSI KD Cross Up	indicator	1.25
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.14
▲	HMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.11
▲	ACCBANDS LOWER Lower Retreat	indicator	1.09
▲	ZLMA Retreat Up	indicator	0.93
▲	Bullish Engulfing	candlestick	0.90
▲	KELTNER LOWER Lower Retreat	indicator	0.70

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNVery strong trend

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bullish momentum signals fired on 4H, but they are counter to the prevailing downtrend on higher timeframes.
Watch 111.303 resistance as the immediate upside target; a break could extend the bounce.
Support at 108.634 is the key invalidation level; a close below it negates the bullish signal.
This is likely a corrective move within a broader bearish trend, not a reversal.

The AUD/JPY 4H signal has fired a cluster of bullish momentum and volatility-contraction indicators, including a BOP Zero Cross Up, STOCHRSI KD Cross Up, and multiple retreat signals (HMA Retreat Up, ZLMA Retreat Up, ACCBANDS LOWER Lower Retreat, KELTNER LOWER Lower Retreat). These suggest that downside momentum is stalling and that price is coiling within lower bands, often a precursor to a bounce. However, the broader trend across timeframes remains predominantly bearish, with the 1H showing a very strong downtrend (4/5) and the 4H itself in a solid downtrend (3/5). This creates a conflict: the signal is counter-trend on the higher timeframes, so the bullish move is likely a correction within a larger downtrend rather than a reversal.

Key levels frame the trade. Nearest resistance at 111.303 is the immediate upside target, while support at 108.634 marks the invalidation zone. A break above resistance would signal stronger bullish momentum, but failure to hold above support would negate the signal. Given the strong bearish alignment on the 1H and 4H, traders should treat this as a tactical long within a downtrend, with tight risk management and a focus on the resistance level as the primary objective.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple momentum and volatility indicators (BOP, STOCHRSI, HMA, ZLMA, ACCBANDS, KELTNER) align in signaling a bounce.
▲ The retreat signals suggest price is pulling back from oversold conditions, supporting a short-term upswing.
▲ The signal strength is very strong (85% probability), indicating high confluence among the triggered indicators.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframe trends (1H, 4H) are strongly bearish, which could overwhelm the counter-trend bounce.
▼ The 15M and 1D timeframes are choppy/sideways, offering no clear trend support for the move.
▼ If price fails to hold above 108.634 support, the bullish signal is invalidated and downside could resume.
▼ Momentum may fade quickly if the bounce stalls below 111.303, leading to a return to the downtrend.