NZD/USD – 1H – SELL

SELL Counter-trend 4× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-11-09 08:00 UTC 2 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed after the holding time · result −0.63 %

Entry

0.55985

Target

0.55274 +1.27 %

closes in profit

Stop

0.56581 −1.06 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 15 candles (15 hours), at the market price

So far 51 of 100 forex 1h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 1,754 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,754 closed forex 1h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

16 % at target avg +0.37 % 35 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.16 % 37 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.18 % 12 % at stop avg −0.40 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ZSCORE Extreme High Exit, STOCHRSI KD Cross Down, BOP Zero Cross Down +3 more

Trend at entry: in 4 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 38,768 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

⚠ Opened against the trend in 4 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 13.9 % vs 18.6 % on average · stopped out 15.5 % vs 12.4 % (forex, 805 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for NZD/USD

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 12h
13:30TodayUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 12h
15:00TodayUSDFed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speech●●○in 14h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 10× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 10× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (9 Nov 2026, 09:00 UTC, updated 4× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	2.37
▲	ULTOSC OB Exit	indicator	2.04
▲	RSI OB Exit	indicator	1.99
▼	STOCHRSI KD Cross Down	indicator	1.81
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.72
▼	EMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.36
▼	SMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.32
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.26
▲	STOCH OB Exit	indicator	1.15
▲	Long Legged Doji	candlestick	0.73

Trend Context

15M

UPSolid trend

30M

UPVery strong trend

UPSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple overbought exit signals and moving average retreats indicate a short-term bearish reversal on the 1H chart.
The bearish signal is contradicted by bullish trends on the 15m to 2H timeframes, so the move may be a pullback rather than a major reversal.
Key levels: resistance at 0.56581 and support at 0.55274; a break below support would strengthen the bearish case.
Trend scores are weak overall, suggesting the signal lacks strong conviction.

The 1H NZD/USD signal has fired a cluster of bearish momentum indicators, including BOP Zero Cross Down, RSI OB Exit, STOCH OB Exit, STOCHRSI KD Cross Down, and ULTOSC OB Exit, alongside retreats from the EMA 200, SMA 200, and HMA. This suggests that after a period of overbought conditions, selling pressure is emerging, potentially marking a short-term reversal from recent highs. The confluence of these signals points to a loss of upside momentum, with the price likely to retrace toward lower support levels.

Despite the bearish signal on the 1H timeframe, the trend across higher timeframes is mixed. The 15m through 2h timeframes are bullish, with solid to very strong trend scores, while the 4H, 8H, 12H, and 1D are bearish. This creates a conflicting picture: the immediate momentum is turning down, but the intermediate-term trend is still up. The nearest support at 0.55274 is a key level to watch, while resistance at 0.56581 caps upside. A break below support would confirm the bearish reversal, but the bullish higher timeframes could limit downside.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of multiple oscillator exits (RSI, STOCH, ULTOSC) signals overbought conditions unwinding.
▼ BOP Zero Cross Down indicates selling pressure is gaining control.
▼ Retreats from EMA 200, SMA 200, and HMA align with the bearish momentum.
▼ Higher timeframe bearish trends (4H and above) provide a backdrop for further downside.

Risk Factors

▲ Bullish trends on the 15m to 2H timeframes could absorb the bearish pressure and lead to a bounce.
▲ The signal strength is weak, and the probability is only 64%, so the signal may fail.
▲ If price holds above the nearest support at 0.55274, the bearish scenario could be invalidated.
▲ A close above the resistance at 0.56581 would negate the bearish setup and signal a continuation higher.