USD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL Counter-trend NEW

2026-11-11 15:00 UTC 13 minutes ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.05 %

Entry

159.753

Target

158.665 +0.68 %

closes in profit

Stop

160.536 −0.49 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price · now candle 0 of 16

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 30m signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 3,411 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 3,411 closed forex 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

18 % at target avg +0.24 % 33 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.11 % 39 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.13 % 10 % at stop avg −0.35 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down, STOCHF KD Cross Down, Bearish Harami Cross

Trend at entry: in 1 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 38,768 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

53.6 % – first candle

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +6% Scalping

▲ Bullish 41 % (3.03) ▼ Bearish 59 % (4.43)

model score 59.4 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

⚠ Opened against the trend in 7 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 10.1 % vs 18.6 % on average · stopped out 16.9 % vs 12.4 % (forex, 615 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

13:30TomorrowUSDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 21h
13:30TomorrowUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 21h
15:00TomorrowUSDExisting Home Sales m/m●●○Forecast 0.0%Previous 1.5%in 23h

All times UTC.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (11 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	STOCH KD Cross Up	indicator	1.82
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	1.58
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.53
▼	Bearish Harami Cross	candlestick	1.07
▲	Northern Doji	candlestick	1.04

Trend Context

15M

UPVery strong trend

30M

UPSolid trend

UPVery strong trend

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bearish signals are firing on the 30-minute chart, but they are counter to the strong bullish trend on lower timeframes.
The nearest support at 158.66500 is the key level to watch for a potential downside extension.
Weak signal strength and conflicting timeframes suggest the bearish move may be limited.
A break below support could shift the short-term bias, while a hold would favor the broader uptrend.

The USD/JPY 30-minute signal stack is predominantly bearish, led by a Stochastic Fast cross down and a Phasor in-phase cross down, reinforced by a Northern Doji and a Bearish Harami Cross. These signals suggest a short-term pullback within a broader bullish trend, as the 15-minute, 30-minute, and 1-hour timeframes all show solid to very strong bullish trends. The bearish signals are therefore counter-trend in nature, and the weak signal strength (59%) reflects this conflict.

Key support sits at 158.66500, which is the nearest downside target and a critical level to watch. A break below this level could signal a deeper correction, while a hold could allow the bullish trend to resume. The higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H) are choppy and sideways, offering little directional conviction, and the daily trend is bearish but also choppy. This mixed backdrop suggests the bearish signals may only lead to a shallow dip unless the support level is decisively broken.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple bearish candlestick patterns (Northern Doji, Bearish Harami Cross) add confluence to the stochastic and phasor cross-down signals.
▼ The daily timeframe is bearish, providing some longer-term alignment with the sell signal.
▼ The presence of a clear support level gives a defined target for the bearish move.

Risk Factors

▲ The 15-minute, 30-minute, and 1-hour trends are all bullish and strong, which could overwhelm the bearish signals.
▲ The 4-hour and higher timeframes are choppy and sideways, offering no clear bearish momentum.
▲ Weak signal strength (59%) and the counter-trend nature of the signals reduce confidence in a sustained decline.
▲ If the support at 158.66500 holds, the bearish move may fizzle and the uptrend could resume.