Silver XAG · Forecast & Analysis
Silver (XAG) is rated bearish: every trend timeframe points down and the news flow has turned, with Fed rate-hike warnings outweighing the earlier election rally. The just-released October CPI is the trigger Waller flagged.
News situation · 91 items / 30 D
3 of 91 straight from the issuer or regulator
XAG chart by timeframe
Trendlines, support and resistance and patterns come from the newest signal of the selected timeframe.
No signal on this timeframe — price and EMA only.
Outlook for Silver
Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.
No price statement: our price history does not reach that far. Based on 91 news items.
What drives it
- Waller warned a half-point December hike may be needed if core CPI reaches 0.3% — a headwind for silver.
- Price sits below the 20-day EMA at 54.07 with momentum measures reading weak, confirming the downward pull.
- Every trend timeframe from 30 minutes to 12 hours points down, strongest at both ends of that range.
- The metal fell clearly over the last 24 hours as the election-week bounce faded.
What argues against it
- The rebound from the one-year low at 48.62 has left silver slightly higher over the past week.
- A softer dollar is actively supporting metals, and silver outperformed gold in Monday trade.
- The midterm-election rally showed the metal can surge sharply when yields fall, and some of that demand may linger.
What would change the picture
- A daily close above the 20-day EMA at 54.07 would open a corrective recovery.
- Clearing the 55.37–55.84 resistance zone would challenge the bearish read.
- A hot core CPI print would cement the rate-hike case; a cool one, as Deutsche Bank expects, could ease it.
Coming up
- US: Jobless claims
- US: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- US: Producer prices · expected 0.4%, previous 0.7%
Economic data for XAG
Full calendarRecently released
- TodayUSDCore CPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%
- TodayUSDCPI●●●Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298
- TodayUSDCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%
- TodayUSDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Previous 0.4%
- TodayUSDCore CPI●●●Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896
- TodayUSDCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.8%Previous 2.6%
- TodayUSDCPI y/y●●●Forecast 4.2%Previous 3.7%
Coming up
- November 12, 2026USDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 1 day
- November 12, 2026USDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●in 1 day
- November 13, 2026USDCore PPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 0.7%in 2 days
- November 13, 2026USDPPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 1.3%in 2 days
- November 17, 2026USDCore Retail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.7%Previous 0.9%in 6 days
- November 17, 2026USDRetail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.8%in 6 days
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value. Price reaction measured on XAGUSD.
Trend across all eight timeframes
Trend measures point down on every timeframe from 30 minutes to 12 hours. Readings are very weak on the one- to four-hour charts and weak on the eight-hour, while the 30-minute and 12-hour trends carry moderate strength — a bearish bias, thinnest conviction in the middle of the range.
What this means for your trading style
- The 15- and 30-minute trends are the most convincing of all styles here, pointing down with real strength despite the choppy backdrop.
- On the one- and two-hour charts the trend points down but the reading is very weak, so this bearish call carries little conviction.
- The four- and eight-hour trends also point down, though the eight-hour reading is only weak — bearish, but shallow.
- The position view rests on the moderately bearish 12-hour trend, the clearest reading among the slower charts.
Both worlds over time
One dot per day and source, 30 days. Technicals: trend across all timeframes at the close of the day. News: net direction of the day.
What is being reported about XAG
In-depth analysis of Silver
AI-generated · as of November 10, 2026
Silver has spent the past week swinging hard. A Democratic sweep in the US midterms on 4 November sparked a rally of close to 5.5% from the one-year low at 48.62, as lower yields and a softer dollar cut the cost of holding a non-yielding metal.
Read full analysis
That bounce has since faded: the price dropped clearly over the last 24 hours to near 52.20, and the news driver changed with it. Fed Governor Waller warned that a half-point December hike may be needed if October core CPI came in at 0.3% or higher, and rising rates are the classic headwind for XAG. That inflation report was published shortly before this assessment; the consensus looked for a 0.2% core print, below Waller's line, and Deutsche Bank expects cooling prices, but the market's read is still forming. The technical side lines up with the bearish flow: trend measures point down on every timeframe, price trades under the 20-day EMA at 54.07 and well below the 9-week EMA at 56.85, while the recent rebound is best read as corrective inside a broader downtrend. Resistance waits at 55.37–55.84, with support at 48.96 and the one-year low of 48.62 beneath it. A close above the EMA, or a break through that resistance zone, is what would turn the picture; high-impact US data — jobless claims, PPI and retail sales — arrives within the next few days.
Frequently asked questions about Silver
Why did silver weaken again after the midterm rally?
The 4 November surge came from a weaker dollar and lower yields after the election result. Fed Governor Waller's warning of a possible half-point December rate hike then shifted attention back to interest rates, which weigh on a non-yielding metal, and the price has fallen clearly over the last day.
What does today's CPI release mean for silver?
It is the trigger Waller named: a core reading of 0.3% or higher could invite a bigger December hike, while the 0.2% consensus would sit below that line. The report was published shortly before this assessment, so the market's read on it will set the near-term tone for the dollar and the metal.
What would change the bearish view?
Two technical things stand out: a daily close above the 20-day EMA at 54.07 would signal a corrective recovery, and clearing the 55.37–55.84 resistance zone would challenge the downtrend. Cooler PPI and retail sales figures in the coming days could also ease the rate-hike pressure.
📝 Overview Generated automatically
XAG has been the subject of 194 signals across 194 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bearish (45%).
Breakdown: 75 bullish, 87 bearish, 32 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Reduction in Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations (2×), Rising US Treasury yields (2×), Increased market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes (2×). Most-cited risk factors: Continued strength in the US Dollar (3×), Potential reversal in US Dollar strength (2×), Volatility in precious metals markets (2×).
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