Markets await October CPI data at 13:30 to gauge the likelihood of a December Fed rate hike, with a 0.3% consensus print potentially cementing current tightening expectations.
October CPI is released today at 13:30 with consensus at 0.3% MoM after 0.6% in September. A soft print of 0.1% or lower could push markets to drop the ~80%-priced December Fed hike, triggering USD selling and bullish EUR/USD momentum; an in-line or stronger figure is expected to produce only a short-lived EUR/USD dip given limited USD upside from positioning.
The October CPI report due today (consensus 0.3% MoM headline, 0.2-0.3% core) is the key test for the ~80%-priced December Fed hike. A downside surprise of 0.1% or lower could trigger sudden USD selling, while an in-line print would support a hike but is judged to offer limited upside given stretched dollar positioning after last week's risk-driven rally.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October CPI data today at 13:30, with headline inflation forecast at 0.3% MoM. Investors are closely watching the print to determine if the Federal Reserve will proceed with a 25 basis point rate hike in December, which is currently 80% priced in by markets.
A monthly headline print of 0.1% or lower, ideally combined with a continued slide in energy prices, could lead markets to drop the December Fed rate hike and spark USD selling, helping EUR/USD rally in the near term.
The article suggests a 0.3% print would reinforce expectations for a December Fed hike, causing a short-lasting bearish reaction in EUR/USD, though the Dollar's upside is seen as limited due to market positioning.
A soft headline print of 0.1% or lower could lead investors to drop the December Fed rate hike and put the USD under sudden selling pressure. A reading at or above the 0.3% consensus could reinforce a hike, but the Dollar's upside is seen as limited by positioning.
Because of the government shutdown from October 1, 2025, to November 12, 2025, BLS could not collect October 2025 data, so 12-month percent changes cannot be published for most CPI series this month.