CoreWeave's strong Q3 results and USD 9 billion in prepayments sparked an AI equity rally, while hawkish Fed expectations pushed the DXY toward 103 resistance.
Third-quarter revenue rose 168% to USD 3.7 billion and full-year guidance of USD 13.0–13.3 billion beat expectations of about USD 12.86 billion, with roughly USD 9 billion in customer prepayments signalling strong demand. Shares already jumped double digits in premarket on November 11, but concerns over AI financing costs and data-centre regulation could cap follow-through.
Strong October CPI and hawkish Fed comments pushed CME FedWatch to 85.6% odds of a 25bps December hike and 14.4% of 50bps, with expected cumulative tightening through June 2027 rising from ~44bps to 76bps. DXY rose about 0.5% Tuesday toward 102.52; a decisive break of 103 would confirm the uptrend, though failure could signal repricing is done.
Fed repricing drove the two-year yield up 18bps to 4.746% and the ten-year to 5.000% on Tuesday, with a 25bps December hike 85.6% priced. Since US Treasury markets were closed for Veterans Day, fresh confirmation of the yield rise only comes when trading reopens, leaving some uncertainty.
CoreWeave's beat lifted Nasdaq-100 futures nearly 2% on November 11 after last Thursday's roughly 5.5% slump. The index closed Tuesday near 25,066, about 9.6% below its record, and the key test is reclaiming the 26,000 area near the 55-day moving average; failure would suggest another temporary relief rally.
CoreWeave shares surged after reporting Q3 revenue of USD 3.7 billion and strong full-year guidance, fueling a rebound in AI-related equities. Simultaneously, the US Dollar index (DXY) climbed toward 103 as markets priced in a more aggressive Federal Reserve, with an 85.6% probability of a 25bps December rate hike.
Because quarterly revenue grew 168% to USD 3.7 billion and the company guided full-year revenue to USD 13.0–13.3 billion, above the roughly USD 12.86 billion markets expected, with about USD 9 billion of customer prepayments confirming demand.
The article flags worries about AI financing needs, stretched valuations and possible data-centre regulation, plus rising Treasury yields from hawkish Fed expectations.
The 103 resistance region on DXY; a decisive break would strengthen the case for a continued dollar uptrend, while failure to overcome it could mean the Fed repricing is already reflected in the currency.
Markets now see an 85.6% chance of a 25bps December hike and a 14.4% chance of a 50bps move, with cumulative tightening through June 2027 raised from about 44bps to 76bps.
Markets sharply raised Fed tightening expectations after strong October CPI and hawkish comments, pricing a December hike with 85.6% probability, which pushed the two-year yield up 18bps to 4.746% and the ten-year to 5.000%.
Not yet fully — US Treasury trading was closed for Veterans Day, so fresh confirmation from bond yields must wait until the market reopens.
A sustained rise above the 26,000 region would strengthen the case the correction is complete; failure to regain it leaves open the chance this is another temporary relief rally.
It closed Tuesday around 25,066, still about 9.6% below its record high.