Following an upside CPI surprise on November 11, 2026, TD Securities sees a December Fed hike as sealed, with markets weighing the possibility of a 50bp move against a 25bp increase.
The upside US CPI surprise makes a December Fed rate hike 'all but certain', with a 50bp move now on the table after Waller's speech. Higher expected rates directly lift the dollar against peers. Pending PPI data could still reshape the 25bp vs 50bp debate.
An upside CPI surprise and firm Core PCE projections make a December hike (25bp or possibly 50bp) virtually certain, with a further hike risk in January 2027. A higher rate path pushes Treasury yields up. The article is analyst commentary, not data confirmation of the hike itself.
A rate hike in December 'all but certain', with a 50bp catch-up move under discussion after an inflation upside surprise, raises discount rates and tightens financial conditions, weighing on US equities. Equity reaction also depends on how investors trade the rate path beyond December.
Gold pays no yield, so a virtually certain December Fed hike — with 50bp risk and possible January follow-through — raises the opportunity cost of holding it and lifts the dollar. The hot CPI itself is inflationary, which is a partial offset for gold.
TD Securities analysts confirm a December Federal Reserve rate hike is now virtually certain following an upside US CPI surprise. The debate among policymakers has shifted to whether the central bank will implement a standard 25bp increase or a 50bp 'catch-up' move, with additional tightening risks potentially extending into January 2027.
A stronger-than-expected US CPI print makes a December Fed rate hike near-certain, and markets now see a risk of a larger 50bp move, which pushes US rates and the dollar higher.
The upcoming PPI data and further comments from Fed officials could soften or harden the size of the December move.
Rising odds of a December hike, possibly 50bps, push yields higher, meaning Treasury prices would fall.
No, the report mentions a rising risk of another hike in January, not a certainty.
A near-certain December rate hike, with 50bp risk, means higher borrowing costs and tighter conditions, which typically pressure US stocks.
Yes, the debate is now between a standard 25bp move and a larger 50bp 'catch-up' hike, and the 50bp scenario would hit stocks harder.
Indirectly yes: the print seals a December Fed hike and raises 50bp odds, which lifts rates and the dollar, both headwinds for gold, though the inflation itself is a partial support.
The upcoming PPI data and further Fed officials' remarks, which will shape whether December brings 25bp or 50bp.