S&P 500 SPX · Forecast & Analysis
Heads-up: USD CPI m/m is due in 5 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Heads-up: USD Core CPI n.s.a. m/m is due in 5 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Heads-up: USD Core CPI is due in 5 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Heads-up: USD Core CPI y/y is due in 5 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Heads-up: USD CPI y/y is due in 5 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Heads-up: USD Core CPI m/m is due in 5 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Heads-up: USD CPI is due in 5 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
The S&P 500 stands neutral: an unusually strong rebound over the past day recovered last week's AI-driven sell-off, yet the still-bearish longer chart trends and heavy news damage leave no clear direction. Inflation data due shortly is the next test.
News situation · 78 items / 30 D
2 of 78 straight from the issuer or regulator
SPX chart by timeframe
Trendlines, support and resistance and patterns come from the newest signal of the selected timeframe.
No signal on this timeframe — price and EMA only.
Outlook for S&P 500
Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.
No price statement: our price history does not reach that far. Based on 78 news items.
What drives it
- An unusually large rise over the past 24 hours pulled the index back after last week's sharp sell-off
- Short-chart trends turned up after the drop, with the 30-minute trend now firmly positive
- December rate-hike odds eased to 66% from 82% and the 10-year yield slipped, easing policy pressure
- Strong payrolls signal economic resilience, and futures inched higher as dip-buyers appeared
What argues against it
- The midterm sweep fuelled AI-regulation fears, producing Wall Street's worst day since April 2025
- Longer chart trends still point down with moderate force, keeping the coming weeks bearish
- High-impact CPI releases due shortly could revive Fed tightening pressure if inflation runs hot
- The selling spread beyond technology, leaving every sector lower in the worst session
What would change the picture
- CPI figures due shortly: a hotter-than-expected print would weigh, a softer one could support the rebound
- The 8-hour and 12-hour trends turning back up would confirm recovery beyond a short bounce
- Clearer policy signals on AI regulation could remove the main driver of the sell-off
Coming up
- US: Consumer prices · expected 2.8%, previous 2.6%
- US: Jobless claims
Economic data for SPX
Full calendarComing up
- TodayUSDCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%in 5h
- TodayUSDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Previous 0.4%in 5h
- TodayUSDCore CPI●●●Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896in 5h
- TodayUSDCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.8%Previous 2.6%in 5h
- TodayUSDCPI y/y●●●Forecast 4.2%Previous 3.7%in 5h
- TodayUSDCore CPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%in 5h
- TodayUSDCPI●●●Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298in 5h
- November 12, 2026USDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 2 days
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value. Price reaction measured on SPX500.
Trend across all eight timeframes
The trend picture is split: the 30-minute trend is firmly up and the 1-hour to 4-hour charts lean up weakly, while the 8-hour and 12-hour trends point down with moderate strength. That reads as a rebound inside a larger downtrend, so the chart side alone does not settle the direction.
What this means for your trading style
- The shortest charts, 15 and 30 minutes, show a firmly bullish trend, strong momentum for very brief trades.
- The hourly and two-hour trends lean up, but only weakly, so intraday direction is positive without much force.
- Swing timeframes split, with a weak 4-hour uptrend against a moderate 8-hour downtrend, leaving no usable direction.
- The longer charts still bear the mark of the sell-off: the 12-hour trend points down with moderate strength.
Both worlds over time
One dot per day and source, 30 days. Technicals: trend across all timeframes at the close of the day. News: net direction of the day.
What is being reported about SPX
In-depth analysis of S&P 500
AI-generated · as of November 9, 2026
The last week delivered one of the sharpest reversals of the year. After the Democratic midterm sweep, fears of tighter AI regulation hit the chipmakers that dominate the S&P 500, and the US benchmark index lost more than four percent in a single session, its worst day since the tariff turmoil of April 2025.
Read full analysis
Selling spread to every sector, though the fact that defensives held up far better suggests rotation within equities rather than a full exit. Since then the picture has steadied: futures edged up toward 7,390, December rate-hike odds eased to 66% from 82% as the 10-year yield slipped to 4.829%, and an unusually strong rebound over the past day has left SPX little changed against a week ago. The charts mirror this split. Trends from 30 minutes up to 4 hours point up, firmly so on the shortest, while the 8-hour and 12-hour trends still point down. That mix, together with news damage that has not fully cleared, is why the overall read is neutral. The nearer week leans on the CPI releases due shortly: a hot print could revive tightening pressure and test the bounce, a soft one could extend it. Over the coming weeks the still-bearish longer trends argue for caution until they turn.
Frequently asked questions about S&P 500
Why is the verdict neutral after such a big bounce?
The unusually large rise of the past day repaired the week, leaving the index little changed against seven days ago. The charts show the same split: short trends up, the 8-hour and 12-hour trends still down. Neither side has enough force to set the direction, so the overall read stays neutral even though nearer-term momentum leans up.
What do the upcoming CPI releases mean for the index?
Several high-impact US inflation readings are due shortly. They shape the dollar and Fed expectations rather than pointing in a fixed direction for stocks. A hotter-than-expected print could revive tightening pressure and threaten the rebound, while a softer one would ease that pressure and could support the recent recovery. Jobless claims follow shortly after.
What actually caused the sell-off?
The Democratic midterm sweep raised fears of tighter AI regulation, and the losses concentrated in the AI chipmakers that carry the largest weight in the index. Selling then spread across every sector, though defensives held up much better, which points to rotation within equities rather than money leaving the market altogether.
📝 Overview Generated automatically
SPX has been the subject of 1442 signals across 1442 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bearish (46%).
Breakdown: 446 bullish, 661 bearish, 335 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Risk-off sentiment (4×), Rising Treasury yields (3×), Rising bond yields (3×). Most-cited risk factors: Strong corporate earnings could offset macro headwinds (5×), Strong corporate earnings could offset macro concerns (4×), Strong corporate earnings (4×).
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