Alaskan crude production is set to hit its highest level since 2014, with the EIA forecasting a 13% increase in 2027 supported by new North Slope projects from ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol.
ConocoPhillips owns the Nuna project on Alaska's North Slope, which started production in December 2024, is expected to peak at 20,000 b/d, and has averaged 10,000 b/d so far this year. Growing Alaskan output supports the company's production, but Nuna's peak volume is small for a company of ConocoPhillips' size.
Santos jointly owns the Pikka Phase 1 project with Repsol, which began production in May 2026 and reached 38,000 b/d by September 2026, with the EIA forecasting an 80,000 b/d peak by winter 2026-27. This ramp-up drives the first third-quarter Alaskan production increase in more than 40 years, supporting Santos' oil volumes.
Repsol jointly owns Pikka Phase 1 with Santos; the project started in May 2026 at 2,000 b/d, reached 38,000 b/d by September 2026 and is forecast to peak at 80,000 b/d by winter 2026-27. The ramp-up adds growing oil volumes for Repsol, though its share is split with Santos.
The November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Alaskan output rising 23,000 b/d (6%) in 2026 and 60,000 b/d (13%) in 2027 to 505,000 b/d, the highest since 2014. Extra US supply is a bearish factor for crude prices, but the added volume is small relative to overall US and global production, limiting the price effect.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects Alaskan crude oil production will rise by 60,000 barrels per day, or 13%, in 2027. This growth, reaching 505,000 barrels per day, is driven by the ramp-up of the Nuna project by ConocoPhillips and the Pikka Phase 1 project, a joint venture between Santos and Repsol.
The EIA attributes Alaskan production growth partly to ConocoPhillips' Nuna project, which is expected to peak at 20,000 b/d and has averaged 10,000 b/d so far in 2026 - a positive but small contributor to the company's overall output.
The EIA expects Santos' jointly owned Pikka Phase 1 project to reach a peak of 80,000 b/d by winter 2026-27, up from 38,000 b/d in September 2026, making it a key driver of Alaskan production growth.
Repsol jointly owns Pikka Phase 1, which the EIA expects to peak at 80,000 b/d by winter 2026-27 after reaching 38,000 b/d in September 2026, supporting Repsol's future oil output.
The EIA expects Alaskan output to grow 13% in 2027 to 505,000 b/d, the most since 2014. That adds supply, which pressure prices downward, but the volume is modest compared with total US production, so the effect on prices should be limited.