Analyst report 💱 Forex 🌍 United Kingdom

GBP/USD Outlook: Commerzbank Forecasts Two Bank of England Rate Hikes

Sterling gains momentum as Commerzbank anticipates two additional Bank of England rate hikes to 4.25% amid resilient UK economic growth and sticky inflation.

🕐 1 min read

1 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 1 Bullish, 0 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: GBP/USD ↑ 7/10 (60% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (1)

GBP/USD
Bullish 🤖 60%
📅 Short-term 🌍 EUROPE · Explicit

The GBP/USD pair is positioned for potential upside as Commerzbank analyst Volkmar Baur anticipates a hawkish shift from the Bank of England. Driven by resilient UK GDP growth and persistent core inflation of 2.6%, the expectation of rate hikes in both November and February to a terminal rate of 4.25% provides a fundamental catalyst for sterling strength.

Catalysts
  • ▲ Upward revisions to UK GDP growth data
  • ▲ Expectation of a Bank of England rate hike in November
Risk Factors
  • ▼ Unexpected cooling in UK monthly economic data
  • ▼ Bank of England opting to hold rates steady despite inflation levels
▼ Show FAQ (2) ▲ Hide FAQ
What is the expected terminal rate for the Bank of England?

Commerzbank expects the Bank of England to hike rates to 4.25% by February.

Why is the pound expected to strengthen?

The pound is supported by resilient UK economic growth and the expectation of higher interest rates to combat sticky inflation.

🎯 Key Takeaways

  • Commerzbank expects Bank of England rate hikes in November and February.
  • Target interest rate set at 4.25% following upward GDP revisions.
  • Sticky core inflation at 2.6% drives the hawkish monetary policy outlook.

📝 Executive Summary

Commerzbank analyst Volkmar Baur projects the Bank of England will raise interest rates in November and February, targeting a 4.25% benchmark. The forecast follows upward revisions to UK GDP and persistent core inflation readings of 2.6%.

❓ FAQ

Why is Commerzbank bullish on the British Pound?

The bank cites resilient UK economic growth and sticky core inflation, which necessitate further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England.