US Treasury yields surged across the curve following a hot CPI print, with 10-year yields nearing 5% and 2-year yields recording their largest daily jump since 2025.
October core CPI came in at +0.30% vs +0.2% expected, the third straight month at +0.3%, pushing the three-month annualised core pace to +3.75%, the fastest since April 2024. Combined with hawkish Fed comments, this triggered a selloff in Treasuries with 10-year yields approaching 5% and pricing now reflecting a more aggressive Fed hiking cycle into 2027, which pushes the yield higher.
Two-year yields saw their biggest daily jump since 2025 after the hot October CPI (core +0.30% vs +0.2% expected) and hawkish Fed commentary. Rate-sensitive short-dated yields are most directly hit when markets reprice toward a more aggressive Fed path into 2027, so the yield is pushed higher.
The hot October CPI (core +0.30% vs +0.2% expected, 3-month annualised core at +3.75%) plus hawkish Fed comments drove a hawkish repricing of the Fed path into 2027, with yields surging across the curve. Higher expected Fed rates typically support the dollar, though the article focuses on Treasuries rather than FX explicitly.
US Treasuries faced a sharp selloff on November 11, 2026, as October core CPI rose +0.30%, exceeding the +0.2% consensus. This marks the third consecutive month of such gains, pushing the three-month annualised core pace to +3.75%, the highest level since April 2024. Consequently, markets have repriced for a more aggressive Federal Reserve hiking cycle extending into 2027.
October CPI surprised to the upside, with core CPI at +0.30% versus +0.2% expected, and hawkish Fed comments reinforced expectations of a longer, more aggressive hiking cycle into 2027, driving yields up across the curve.
The article states 10-year yields approached 5% after the CPI release.
Two-year yields recorded their biggest daily jump since 2025, showing the short end was hit hardest as markets priced a more aggressive Fed hiking path.
Yes, likely. The hot print and hawkish Fed comments point to a more aggressive hiking cycle into 2027, which tends to support the US dollar, although the article's evidence centres on the Treasury selloff.