AUD/JPY – 12H – BUY

2026-08-04 00:00 UTC · 13 hours ago

BUY

100%

▲ BUY

VERY STRONG

Position

Prognose: 56% historisch

⚡ Confluence +8%

▲ Bullish 100% (8.72) ▼ Bearish 0% (0.00)

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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	CMO OS Exit	indicator	1.84
▲	RSI OS Exit	indicator	1.81
▲	WILLR OS Exit	indicator	1.69
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.47
▲	STOCH KD Cross Up	indicator	1.29
▲	Marubozu Bullish	candlestick	1.02
▲	Bullish Engulfing	candlestick	0.99
▲	Bullish Separating Lines	candlestick	0.95

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

DOWNVery strong trend

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A powerful bullish reversal signal has fired on the 12H chart, but it is against the dominant bearish trend across most timeframes.
The confluence of multiple oversold exits and bullish candlestick patterns suggests a high-probability bounce, yet the trend context argues for caution.
Watch the nearest resistance at 114.65800; a break above could open the door for further upside, while rejection there would likely confirm the bearish trend.
The 2H and 4H timeframes are very strongly bearish, so any long position should be treated as a counter-trend trade with tight risk management.

The AUD/JPY 12H chart has fired a cluster of bullish signals, including a BOP Zero Cross Up, exits from oversold conditions on CMO, RSI, and Williams %R, a bullish STOCH KD cross, and a trio of bullish candlestick patterns: Bullish Engulfing, Bullish Separating Lines, and Marubozu Bullish. This confluence suggests a strong short-term reversal attempt from deeply oversold levels, with the very strong signal strength and 100% probability indicating a high degree of alignment among the indicators.

However, the broader trend context is firmly bearish. The 2H, 4H, 8H, and 12H timeframes all show solid to very strong bearish trends, while the 1D is also bearish. Only the 30M and 1H are bullish, and the 15M is still bearish. This means the bullish signals are likely a counter-trend bounce within a larger downtrend. The nearest resistance at 114.65800 is a critical level; a break above it could signal a deeper correction, while a failure there would likely resume the bearish trend.

Catalysts

▲ Strong confluence of bullish signals: BOP Zero Cross Up, CMO/RSI/WILLR oversold exits, STOCH KD cross up, and three bullish candlestick patterns.
▲ Very strong signal strength and 100% probability indicate a high degree of agreement among the indicators.
▲ The bullish signals are firing from deeply oversold conditions, which often precede a technical rebound.
▲ The 30M and 1H timeframes are already bullish, suggesting early momentum is turning in favor of buyers.

Risk Factors

▼ The broader trend is bearish across the 2H, 4H, 8H, 12H, and 1D timeframes, so this bullish signal may be a counter-trend bounce that could fade quickly.
▼ The nearest resistance at 114.65800 is a key barrier; if price fails to break above it, the bullish momentum could wane and the downtrend resume.
▼ The 15M timeframe is still bearish, indicating that the very short-term trend has not yet turned, which could undermine the bounce.
▼ If the bullish signal fails and price breaks below the recent swing low, the invalidation level for the reversal would be breached, likely leading to a continuation of the bearish trend.