USD/JPY – 4H – BUY

2026-08-05 16:00 UTC · 13 hours ago

BUY

72%

▲ BUY

MODERATE

Swing

Prognose: 26% historisch

▲ Bullish 72% (7.19) ▼ Bearish 28% (2.85)

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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Bear Flag	chart_pattern	2.11
▲	Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (79%)	fibonacci	1.21
▲	MIDPRICE Retreat Up	indicator	1.18
▲	MAMA PRICE Retreat Up	indicator	1.16
▲	Hammer	candlestick	1.16
▲	MIDPOINT Retreat Up	indicator	1.05
▲	BBANDS MIDDLE Cross Up	indicator	1.02
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	0.95
▲	Bullish Harami	candlestick	0.94
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	0.89
▲	DEMA Retreat Up	indicator	0.84

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNVery strong trend

12H

DOWNVery strong trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bullish signals on 4H, but higher timeframes are strongly bearish – likely a counter-trend bounce.
Watch resistance at 163.94700; a break above could extend gains.
Support at 155.22400 is the key invalidation level for the bullish case.
Mixed lower timeframe trends suggest choppy conditions; wait for confirmation.

The 4H USD/JPY signal has fired a cluster of bullish indicators, including a Bear Flag pattern, BOP Zero Cross Up, STOCHF KD Cross Up, and multiple moving average retreat-ups (BBANDS MIDDLE, DEMA, MAMA, MIDPOINT, MIDPRICE). This suggests a potential upward reversal or a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend. The confluence of these signals points to a short-term bullish momentum shift, but the higher timeframes (2H through 12H) remain firmly bearish with strong trend scores, indicating that any upside may be limited and could be a counter-trend move.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 163.94700 and support at 155.22400. A break above resistance would signal stronger bullish momentum, while a failure to hold above the current level could see the pair resume its downtrend. The mixed lower timeframe trends (15m bullish, 30m-1h bearish) add uncertainty, so traders should be cautious and wait for confirmation before entering.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple bullish signals firing together (Bear Flag, BOP, STOCHF, moving average retreat-ups) increase confidence.
▲ Strong trend scores on 4H-12H indicate the broader downtrend may be mature, setting up for a reversal.
▲ The Bear Flag pattern often precedes a bullish breakout, and the cluster of indicators supports that scenario.
▲ The 15m bullish trend provides early momentum for the move.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (2H-12H) are strongly bearish, so the bullish signal may be a temporary pullback.
▼ The 30m and 1h timeframes are still bearish, suggesting the bullish momentum is not yet widespread.
▼ If price fails to break above the nearest resistance at 163.94700, the bullish case weakens.
▼ A drop below the nearest support at 155.22400 would invalidate the bullish setup.